That’s a wrap! Feels like this is not the final most wanted to see, as the England narrative was too good. But you have to be impressed by Croatia. Since gaining independence, it has finished third (losing to France in the semis in 1998) and now has a chance to become the ninth country to ever win a World Cup.
Croatia had a 7 percent chance pre-tournament to make the final, according to our model. It was at 3 percent to win it all.
I feel like I undersold as the tournament went on how much England’s defense was working because of its midfield protecting a dubious back line. Tonight that back line was tested by a team that was happy to get the ball wide and cross it in, and that was too much for them.
When was the last time two teams played two utterly meaningless games in the same tournament?
England just didn’t have anything to lean on once its defense crumbled for a 10-minute stretch.
When’s the last time teams from the same group met in the third-place match?
Belgium vs. England is gonna be an all time classic 3rd place game. Anyone? ANYONE??
Gotta feel for England, but it’s awesome that we still have a chance to see a first-time winner. For me, that’s the sort of thing that’s made this one of the best World Cups I’ve ever watched.
England did not get a shot off after the Mandzukic goal. A lot of effort, but attacking 10 vs. 11 in the closing minutes was just too much for The Three Lions.
Looks like it’ll be 59-41 in terms of the probabilities for France vs. Croatia in the final, according to the FiveThirtyEight model.
Le football rentre à la maison.
Croatia makes its first ever final.
It’s over! Croatia 2, England 1.
Vardy looking like a character in a Guy Ritchie film.
Less than a minute left. England still with 10 men because of the Trippier injury.
SET PLAY
Handball on Croatia. Free kick for England. (124th minute)
That Kane chance was off the post, too, which doesn’t count.
Though his defender had to clear one off the line for him.
Unbelievable that the Croatian keeper hasn’t had to make a save (according to Fox).
Same, Michael. Same.
<not breathing>
Four minutes is a lot of stoppage time for an extra time half.
England is playing like it’s winning 2-1 right now.
Four minutes of stoppage time.
Unfortunate for The Three Lions.
Should have been a corner there.
Last sub for Croatia. Modric off. Badelj on. (118th minute)
Can’t imagine how injured Trippier must be for him not to stay on the field.
And now Trippier looks seriously injured.
Free kick for England. (117th minute)
Neil, gotta be top two?
Where would this rank in the history of soul-crushing English losses?
Pickford with his fifth save. (116th minute)
Trippier looks hurt but England is out of subs.
Love the cameras picking up Maguire saying “five minutes” — they’ll get like two, I imagine.
Corluka on for Manzukic. (115th minute)
This corner will take about 110 seconds.
Manzukic showing a master class in time-wasting.
Another corner for Croatia.
Prediction: Vardy scores an 8-minute hat trick.
Manzukic is down but England plays on.
Vardy is going to come on this pitch like he was shot out of a cannon.
Vardy coming on for Walker. That will be England’s last sub. (112th minute)
And now Croatia has an 88 percent chance of winning, according to the 538 model:
That’s like three years worth of good John Stones defending.
To be fair, it’s been 590 minutes of soccer without John Stones doing a bad defending.
I guess the collision with Pickford didn’t really hurt Manzukic.
Awful there.