Thanks for following along with us today, everyone! Join us again Tuesday at 3 p.m. Eastern as the USWNT takes on England for a spot in the World Cup final.
The USWNT just beat France to advance to the semifinal of the World Cup. We said before that this would be its biggest hurdle and [beats dead horse] a proxy for the championship match. It wasn’t the Americans’ best match of the tournament, and they got outplayed for much of it — the USWNT completed just 65 percent of its passes, while the French completed 79 percent of theirs — but they did enough to win.
But the underlying stats say they shouldn’t have. According to Opta Sports, the U.S. completed 69 fewer passes in the attacking third than its opponents in dark blue. And the Americans made only one pass — total — inside the penalty area. The USWNT had less of the ball than France, made far fewer passes than France and created fewer chances than France. The French, however, don’t have Megan Rapinoe on their roster. The play of Rapinoe and Crystal Dunn, who was exceptional on the backline for the Americans, meant the play of the rest of the team didn’t even matter.
So the USWNT moves on. Our model now gives it a 45 percent chance to win the whole thing. Perhaps the performance today will have everyone feeling less convinced that it deserves its status as the favorite. But everyone knew the U.S. could win big. And now it has proved in consecutive knockout matches that it can win ugly. That’s not good news for anyone looking to unseat the U.S. as the best team in women’s soccer.
Haha, fair.
The U.S. just wasn’t better than France. There is no shame in that! It also means the U.S. is not the colossal force it has been made out to be. There is no shame in that, either! They are a flawed team, and you love to see it! Makes the games a) more exciting b) more worthy of debate and c) more appealing. I am trying to puncture the patriotic industrial complex, is all!
The U.S. midfield did not have a good game. But the defense picked them up. Isn’t that part of being a world-class team?
So your point is that France took a lot of shots?
As I was saying …
The other factor in France’s favor was possession, which the French won 61 to 39 percent. But in the end, the hosts managed to turn that into only five shots on target.
An update from our model, which has been busy recomputing the tournament after the U.S.’s win: The U.S. now has a 68 percent chance of making the final and a 45 percent chance of winning the whole thing. Of the other teams, the model is most impressed with Germany, but the Germans still have to win their quarterfinal match against Sweden on Saturday.
Sure, Chad.
See, even Rapinoe agrees with me, Sara.
Rapinoe says France outplayed them but “the defense was amazing.”
So far everyone has been coming up to me, shaking my hand and saying, “It was a good match.”
Tony, you gotta let us know if France is rueing the blown handball call or if they’re moving on.
I feel like Morgan’s gotta be playing hurt. I’m just not sure that’s better than someone coming in with full health off the bench.
I did think she looked better this game, though…
Also … will there be calls for Jill Ellis to remove Alex Morgan from the lineup next game? She had a second-straight game of little consequence.
CRYSTAL FREAKING DUNN.
My other takeaway is CRYSTAL FREAKING DUNN.
My takeaway is that the U.S. found a different way to win, and that’s what you have to do when one aspect of your game is faltering a bit.
The only Alexi Lalas dialogue I want to hear are his lines from Mary Kate and Ashley’s direct-to-VHS film “Switching Goals.”
Obviously.
I muted Lalas. Everyone else did too, right?
I agree that they were evenly matched, and in hindsight, I think that early goal was critical for the U.S. It put the French on their heels for most of the rest of the way, I thought.
I agree that they were well-matched. I think of equal talent. The question hovering over the rest of the tourney is whether England, Germany and Netherlands are really that much worse, and whether we really did just watch the final.
I don’t think France is better. I think they’re probably the two best teams, like we thought they were.
Certainly the U.S. was largely unimpressive for much of this game. But how much of that was due to facing France, a tough opponent?
Did you think France looked better? They seemed very well-matched to me.
Same Chad. Soccer is unfair.
Nothing in this game convinced me the U.S. is actually better than France.
The U.S. will play England on Tuesday in the first semifinal match.
On to the next one!
And the U.S. wins the de facto World Cup final (as the commentators have repeatedly called it).
Game! The U.S. moves on!
Any second now.
KILL THE CLOCK, REF!!!
OK, so Morgan maybe hasn’t been netting, but that was really great hold up play.
Beautiful time-killing by Morgan in the corner.
Waste that time! Waste that time!
Clean tackle by Tobin Heath to break up another developing play.
HEATH
DUNN IS AMAZING
Great play by Dunn swooping in from the backside to steal that ball and kill the developing French play.
LOL, same.
They’re a hell of a lot calmer than I am!
They’re five minutes from being eliminated on home soil and they’re still just remarkably calm. I love watching good teams play.
That build up play leading to the chance (it was offside in the end) was beautiful from France.
Huge takeaway by the U.S. to eat up some extra time.
That decision to pull back by Press is the most impressive thing I have seen from the U.S. in the last 10 minutes. Burn the clock!