Thanks for joining us today! We’ll be back Friday to blog the USWNT’s match against France. Please follow along with us!
The U.S. Makes It Through
It wasn’t always pretty, but the U.S. women’s national team just punched its ticket to the quarterfinals. We expected Spain to make things difficult for the USWNT — the Spanish had conceded just two goals in three group stage matches, and even outplayed a strong German team despite losing 1-0 — and that was the case today.
The Americans failed to score in open play, and even though they possessed more of the ball (55 percent to 45 percent), they found it difficult to create scoring chances. Spain was aggressive (committing 18 fouls to the Americans’ four), getting into passing lanes all match and winning the battles of tackles made. And an early equalizing goal off a U.S. miscue at the back meant that Spain had a puncher’s chance as long as things stayed tied at one goal each.
Even though the U.S. made more passes in the attacking third than its opponents (118 to 78, according to Opta Sports), that didn’t translate into dominance inside the penalty area: Both teams made 21 total passes in the penalty area, and both teams complete just six of them. Fortunately for the U.S., two of those movements resulted in penalties. Also fortunately for the U.S., Megan Rapinoe has ice in her veins. She converted both spot kicks, and the U.S., despite a somewhat underwhelming performance, lives to fight another day.
And now the focus shifts to Paris, where the Americans will play host nation France in the quarterfinals. We’ve said it before, and we’ll say it again: This could decide who wins the whole thing. Our model currently gives these two teams the best and second-best chances of winning the World Cup. Whoever wins, then, will be overwhelming favorites going forward.
A very pretty win probability chart, even if the game wasn’t quite as pretty.
The model right now has U.S. slightly favored, 54 percent vs. 46 percent against France.
The champions could be decided Friday in Paris.
Except that France also has won ugly.
Now we’ll get those two head-to-head.
Ugly win. The model should be less convinced of the U.S.’s chances after that.
Heath and Horan in that last half minute in the corner, wowowow.
France vs. USA in the quarterfinals this Friday.
Ballgame! The U.S. moves on.
They wanted that penalty SO badly.
Kinda shocked that didn’t go to VAR.
Spain looking for a late bailout penalty on perhaps their last chance in the box.
Blow the whistle, ref. BLOW THE WHISTLE.
Christen Press on for the GOAT.
That Naeher ball to Rapinoe was nasty.
Rapinoe knows how to work like the clock like a veteran.
Rapinoe is a one-woman clock-milking machine. She can’t be knocked off the ball, aside from fouling her.
Tony gets where I was heading. Orange forever.
NETHERLANDS
And I still think it’s between the U.S. and France (and maybe Germany)
Vulnerable back line; keeper who has made some questionable decisions; attacking three who have moments of individual brilliance but can’t quite connect; unable to push through physical opposition and score in open play…
Some of that could be said about France, don’t get me wrong!
tbh I think Spain is better than anyone gave them credit for…
About three minutes left. Will we get the matchup we’re all hoping for (even if it’s a couple rounds too early)?
Are we sure the U.S. is the best team in this tournament?
Spain has been getting its chances during this stoppage time. Still a lot of game left to play.
It does, Neil! And even that one still pisses me off…
That’s mandatory for every sport.
Still terrible video review though.
To be fair, Terrence, hockey also has a better offsides rule.
(“Thoughts”!)
In HocKeY wE cALL tHaT iNterFErence
Another non-call there on Heath.
Nate, in the FiveThirtyEight offices during that latest substitution, just said out loud: “They should stop the clock.” LMAO, oh Nate…
You called it, Terrence!
We’re going to see, like, seven minutes of stoppage time right?
These are really unfair subs for the USA.
Dang, that was close.
USWNT Twitter got its wish.
Horan on for Lavelle.
88th minute. Corner for USA.
Bad offsides call against Carli there. She was on!
Nice luxury for the U.S. to bring in as a sub a player with 113 career national-team goals.
Loud cheers in the crowd as Morgan is subbed off for the U.S. Lloyd on.
She’s everywhere. Just then she held off three Spanish defenders, took the ball back and then drew a yellow card foul.
RAPINOE AGAINST THE WORLD
Games like this (provided they see it out and win) are good, imo. Tests the mettle/assesses how you deal with adversity/insert other sports cliché.
83rd minute and Spain makes another sub. Caldentey on for Torrecilla.
Ellis’s delay in using the subs until the 84th minute is still baffling to me.