Wisconsin Primary Elections: Live Coverage And Results

Sanders had a very good night. He’ll likely end up winning by around 13 percentage points over Clinton in Wisconsin, which is a bigger margin than all the polls had it. He won in almost every county in the state (except Milwaukee). This is the type of night that Sanders needs to replicate going forward if he is going to have a shot at the Democratic nomination. My colleague Nate Silver estimated last week that Sanders needed to win Wisconsin by 16 percentage points to be “on track” to tie Clinton in the pledged delegate count. He didn’t quite reach that level, but he came close enough that he stays in the hunt. Of course, if Sanders cannot replicate this type of overperformance in the bigger primary states of Maryland, New York and Pennsylvania coming up later this month than this win was for naught. That’s why it’s key that Sanders picks up some momentum from these wins. He’s still well behind in the polls in the big delegate prize states coming up. In particular, Sanders needs to do better with black voters, a group he lost by nearly 40 percentage points tonight, which is about on par for his performance so far in northern primaries. That didn’t hurt Sanders in Wisconsin given that just 10 percent of Democratic voters were black in the state, but black voters will probably make up at least 15 percent of Democratic primary voters in Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania and — although it has fewer delegates — Delaware. In the delegate race, Sanders will likely remain somewhere in the neighborhood of 210 pledged delegates behind Clinton. That’s a very high hill to climb with delegates awarded proportionally, but tonight made that hill just a little less steep.