What does the Sanders victory mean?
Sanders is the projected winner in Wisconsin and he might have a double-digit margin. Even if he’s still behind Clinton in the delegate count, this victory will look significant. Can Sanders eventually claim some sort of election mandate – even if he doesn’t win the nomination?
Recent scholarship on mandates (some of which was written by me) suggests that mandate claims are most powerful when the election result comes as a surprise. This is, of course, generally supposed to be a time when there’s a surprising victory. But a surprisingly strong challenge to a powerful figure is likely to pack a strong punch – to bolster a story that the election meant something. The other factor that seems to drive politicians to claim mandates in the first place is the existence of distinct policy positions. Although Clinton and Sanders may share substantial common ground, the differences between them on foreign policy, economic issues, and campaign finance have been reasonably clear. In the wake of this extended string of victories, Sanders is likely to claim a wave of support for his vision.
It’s hard to really know what elections mean. Voters have a whole range of reasons why they make decisions. But the signs suggest that conditions are ripe for Sanders to get some mileage out of his 2016 victories, whatever happens between now and the convention.