FiveThirtyEight
Nate Silver

Of course it’s dumb not to do your own polling, especially when you’re as rich as Trump claims to be, but I can’t really fault him for spending a lot of time in Wisconsin. Even if he loses the state, he could have potentially salvaged a few delegates from congressional districts by spending more time there; keeping the margins closer might also matter a bit for how the media frames the result. Still, Trump relies so much on the perception of being a “winner” that I wonder if his ego would allow him to concede a state. If he wins the Republican nomination, is he spending a bunch of time campaigning in New York and New Jersey, for instance?

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