Trump’s campaign is looking ahead to New York, where he’ll be a very heavy favorite when voting takes place in two weeks. The thing to watch, however, is whether Trump gets 50 percent of the state’s vote. New York’s 14 statewide delegates become winner-take-all for a candidate who hits that threshold. Congressional districts in New York also become winner-take-all for a candidate getting 50 percent.
Trump has 51.4 percent of the vote in New York in our current polling average. Ordinarily, that would make him pretty safe to hit 50 percent since the polling average doesn’t include undecided voters, and we’d expect him to pick up at least a few of them. As Harry notes, however, Trump hasn’t been a typical candidate in this regard. Instead, he’s tended to hit his polling averages right on the nose without winning many undecideds. I’d bet on Trump to win 50 percent in New York if offered even money, but it’s not a slam dunk, especially if (gasp) he has unfavorable “momentum” after tonight.
