Wisconsin Primary Elections: Live Coverage And Results

“We can change the status quo when we think big and when we have a vision,” Sanders said during a long victory speech tonight, touching on topics that included business taxes and “the corporate media.” (Some Sanders supporters recently staged a “Bern the Media” campaign, boycotting some news outlets). Sanders also said that Clinton was “nervous” about his ability to appeal to voters in New York. He’s not quite as gloves-off as Trump, but Sanders has arguably been ratcheting up his attacks on Clinton. One analysis in The New York Times cited current and former members of Sanders’s team making the case he should have hit Clinton verbally harder and sooner.

Trump’s campaign is looking ahead to New York, where he’ll be a very heavy favorite when voting takes place in two weeks. The thing to watch, however, is whether Trump gets 50 percent of the state’s vote. New York’s 14 statewide delegates become winner-take-all for a candidate who hits that threshold. Congressional districts in New York also become winner-take-all for a candidate getting 50 percent. Trump has 51.4 percent of the vote in New York in our current polling average. Ordinarily, that would make him pretty safe to hit 50 percent since the polling average doesn’t include undecided voters, and we’d expect him to pick up at least a few of them. As Harry notes, however, Trump hasn’t been a typical candidate in this regard. Instead, he’s tended to hit his polling averages right on the nose without winning many undecideds. I’d bet on Trump to win 50 percent in New York if offered even money, but it’s not a slam dunk, especially if (gasp) he has unfavorable “momentum” after tonight.

In case anyone is interested, the re-weighted exit polls have Cruz winning by 14 percentage points and Sanders by 12 percentage points.