Wisconsin Primary Elections: Live Coverage And Results

Trump’s campaign is looking ahead to New York, where he’ll be a very heavy favorite when voting takes place in two weeks. The thing to watch, however, is whether Trump gets 50 percent of the state’s vote. New York’s 14 statewide delegates become winner-take-all for a candidate who hits that threshold. Congressional districts in New York also become winner-take-all for a candidate getting 50 percent. Trump has 51.4 percent of the vote in New York in our current polling average. Ordinarily, that would make him pretty safe to hit 50 percent since the polling average doesn’t include undecided voters, and we’d expect him to pick up at least a few of them. As Harry notes, however, Trump hasn’t been a typical candidate in this regard. Instead, he’s tended to hit his polling averages right on the nose without winning many undecideds. I’d bet on Trump to win 50 percent in New York if offered even money, but it’s not a slam dunk, especially if (gasp) he has unfavorable “momentum” after tonight.

In case anyone is interested, the re-weighted exit polls have Cruz winning by 14 percentage points and Sanders by 12 percentage points.

Gone are the Iowa days of Trump the graceful loser. After losing Wisconsin tonight, his campaign put out a statement saying that Trump “withstood the onslaught of the establishment” and that “Lyin’ Ted Cruz had the governor of Wisconsin, many conservative talk radio show hosts, and the entire party apparatus behind him.” The statement went on in that manner, with Trump calling Cruz a “Trojan horse, being used by the party bosses attempting to steal the nomination from Mr. Trump.” We can gather two things from this statement: 1) Trump is feeling Cruz’s hot breath down his neck in the fight for delegates and 2) Trump is a fan of the serial comma (long may it reign).