Wisconsin Primary Elections: Live Coverage And Results

Gone are the Iowa days of Trump the graceful loser. After losing Wisconsin tonight, his campaign put out a statement saying that Trump “withstood the onslaught of the establishment” and that “Lyin’ Ted Cruz had the governor of Wisconsin, many conservative talk radio show hosts, and the entire party apparatus behind him.” The statement went on in that manner, with Trump calling Cruz a “Trojan horse, being used by the party bosses attempting to steal the nomination from Mr. Trump.” We can gather two things from this statement: 1) Trump is feeling Cruz’s hot breath down his neck in the fight for delegates and 2) Trump is a fan of the serial comma (long may it reign).

It’s still early in the night, but we already know a lot, thanks to the contours of the votes reported so far. Cruz looks poised to win at least 33 delegates out of Wisconsin: he’s won the18 statewide delegates by winning the state, and is clearly on track to win 15 more in five congressional districts: the 1st, 4th, 5th, 6th, and 8th Districts. Meanwhile, Trump looks likely to avoid a shutout because he’s leading Cruz fairly consistently across the 7th District (he trails in Wausau, but by just 29 votes). Cruz is currently leading in the 2nd District thanks to a 2,645 vote margin in Madison’s Dane County. Relatively few votes have been reported in the western 3rd District, but it looks very close.

I asked earlier in the evening if Trump could win any of the undecided voters. The average poll in the last three weeks had him at 34 percent. Right now, he’s at 31 percent. Even if he picks up an additional 3 percentage points on his vote total (which I think is quite possible based on the remaining area), it’ll be another state where Trump gets exactly what he polled or worse.