Wisconsin Primary Elections: Live Coverage And Results

So far, Sanders seems to be beating expectations in Wisconsin and has the potential to rack up a double-digit margin of victory tonight. He’s now leading 54 percent to 46 percent, but over half of Milwaukee County (where most of the state’s African-American voters live) and Ozaukee County (high-income suburbs north of Milwaukee) are reporting, compared to less than a quarter of the rest of the state. So Sanders’s lead should grow as the night goes on.

“Four very different states — Utah, Colorado, North Dakota, Wisconsin. Four victories.” That was Cruz’s boast in his victory speech just now (along with endless web-callouts for his website, and a claim he has raised $2 million today alone). Interestingly, he added that “before Cleveland, or in Cleveland” he would get all the delegates needed — acknowledging the growing possibility of a contested convention.

Obligatory sanity-check post: I know that the details matter, and that we’re interested to see whether Trump can take a congressional district in Wisconsin despite his poor night statewide. But it bears repeating that he’s having a really bad night and Cruz is having a really good one. Cruz currently leads Trump by 23 points with about a quarter of Wisconsin reporting. The Upshot expects that lead to eventually narrow to about 15 points. Still, that would be a larger margin of victory than predicted by any poll. And even if Trump ekes out a handful of delegates from congressional districts, he’ll be well behind the 25 delegates we expected him to win Wisconsin a few weeks ago.