Wisconsin Primary Elections: Live Coverage And Results

I mostly agree with your point, Harry, but my recollection from previous polls is that Trump usually does better on the “most electable” question than he does overall. So this isn’t anything new; if anything, the spread is narrower than usual and suggests that those poor horse-race polls for him against Clinton are starting to sink in with a few voters.

To follow up on Dave’s point, If you’re looking for signs of potential trouble for Cruz on his way to sweeping the delegate count, the two earliest precincts to report in northwest Wisconsin have Trump ahead, with more than half the vote. Still a lot of votes out, however.

Cruz may be tonight’s big winner, but the silver lining for Trump is that Cruz’s support appears geographically concentrated in the state’s conservative, well-educated suburbs like Waukesha and Ozaukee counties. That means Trump still has a chance to rack up a significant delegate share tonight, even while losing the state. Trump is posting early leads in Kenosha County (Paul Ryan’s district along the Illinois border), Bayfield County (a small working-class county on Lake Superior) and Sauk County (northwest of Madison). These showings bode well for Trump’s chances of winning a district or two and preventing a Cruz delegate sweep.