Wisconsin Primary Elections: Live Coverage And Results

The same pre-election poll / exit poll blend would have Sanders beating Clinton by 9 percentage points in Wisconsin. Note, however, that the Decision Desk HQ Democratic exit poll is more favorable to Sanders than the one put together by the networks, and suggests he could beat Clinton by double digits.

Most Sanders supporters are focused on whether their guy can close the lead Clinton has in pledged delegates between now and June. A narrow victory in Wisconsin tonight would be unlikely to put much of a dent in her current 220-delegate lead. But perhaps just as importantly, it wouldn’t put much of a dent in Clinton’s often-overlooked 2.5-million popular vote lead. Sanders supporters hypothesize that Clinton’s 469-to-31 lead in superdelegates will vanish if their candidate can win a majority of pledged delegates and claim the “will of the people.” But thanks to his reliance on low-turnout caucus states like Idaho and Washington, Sanders has won just 41 percent of votes, even though he’s won 45 percent of pledged delegates. Even in the very unlikely event that Sanders erases Clinton’s pledged delegate lead by June, Clinton would probably be able to persuade her superdelegates to stick with her by reminding them that she still won more actual votes than Sanders.

Exit polls in Wisconsin show Cruz 10 points ahead of Trump. Based on the formula I described earlier, that would point toward an 8- or 9-point win for Cruz when combined with pre-election polls. The margin of error is high enough, though, that while a Cruz win is likely, it isn’t quite certain. Hence, ABC News and other networks aren’t likely to call the race until some actual votes come in.