What Went Down In Elections In Minnesota, Wisconsin, Vermont And Connecticut

Sarah, we have seen a 2-point shift in the generic ballot after the Dobbs decision, going from the GOP by 2 points to a tie. That’s a plus for the Democrats. However, beyond what Galen noted — that we expect the out party to usually gain between now and November — the big question is whether the generic ballot will start to look more like Biden’s approval rating does right now. The farther apart those are (assuming Biden’s number remain as ugly as they are), the better for Democrats. But if the two metrics do start to align more, that will be good for the GOP.