What Went Down In Elections In Minnesota, Wisconsin, Vermont And Connecticut

Because it takes state-legislative elections into account in addition to presidential ones, FiveThirtyEight partisan lean can sometimes produce some surprising results — perhaps nowhere more so than in Connecticut. The state’s 2nd and 5th congressional districts, which each voted for Biden by 11 points in 2020, have FiveThirtyEight partisan leans of just D+3. To me, that makes them sleeper targets for the GOP this cycle, especially if a “red wave” develops. Currently, we give Republicans a 33 in 100 chance in the 5th and a 20 in 100 chance in the 2nd — and this at a time when Democrats are leading in generic congressional ballot polls!