FiveThirtyEight
Nathaniel Rakich

How Redistricting Has Affected Wisconsin’s Congressional Races

Polls are closing shortly in Wisconsin. Because Wisconsin’s governor is a Democrat and its legislature is controlled by Republicans, they couldn’t agree on a new congressional map for the state. So the Wisconsin Supreme Court imposed the map below, with six Republican-leaning districts and two Democratic-leaning ones.

In a loss for Democrats, the court decided early on that it would draw a new map that was as close as possible to the old one (which Republicans drew). That precluded a map that was more proportional to how the state votes, such as this 5-3 map produced by the largely ceremonial Wisconsin People’s Maps Commission.


However, in a loss for Republicans, the court picked the map that was proposed by Democratic Gov. Tony Evers, which made the suburban Milwaukee 1st District somewhat competitive, with a FiveThirtyEight partisan lean of R+6. Although this seat, held by GOP Rep. Bryan Steil, probably won’t be vulnerable in a year such as 2022, it could fall to Democrats sometime down the road.


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