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What Went Down In Elections In Minnesota, Wisconsin, Vermont And Connecticut
Filed under 2022 Election
What We’re Watching In Minnesota Tonight
Tonight, we’re watching one Democratic primary, one Republican primary and one special election in the Land of 10,000 Lakes.
- First, the Democratic primary in the Minneapolis-based 5th District features Rep. Ilhan Omar and a challenge from her right by former Minneapolis City Council member Don Samuels. Samuels has criticized Omar for supporting a failed effort in 2021 to replace the Minneapolis Police Department with a Department of Public Safety, but Omar has outraised (and outspent) her challenger and looks favored to retain this deep-blue seat.
- Meanwhile, in Minnesota’s 1st District, Republicans will choose whether former state Rep. Brad Finstad, a self-described “problem solver,” or state Rep. Jeremy Munson, an anti-establishment conservative, will be their nominee in November. Finstad defeated Munson 38 percent to 37 percent in the primary election for a special election for this seat in May.
- The general-election phase of that special election is also happening tonight, pitting Finstad against Democrat Jeff Ettinger. The old 1st District (under whose lines the special is being held) had a FiveThirtyEight partisan lean of R+15, so this should be a safe hold for Republicans — but we’ll be watching for whether Democrats can do better than expected. They came surprisingly close to winning the most recent special election, in Nebraska’s 1st District. However, overall, neither party has consistently overperformed in special elections this cycle.
2021-22 special elections have been a mixed bag
How the final vote-share margins in federal special elections in the 2022 cycle compare with the seats’ FiveThirtyEight partisan leans
| Date | Seat | Partisan Lean | Vote Margin | Margin Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 20, 2021 | Louisiana 2nd* | D+51 | D+66 | D+15 |
| March 20, 2021 | Louisiana 5th* | R+31 | R+45 | R+13 |
| May 1, 2021 | Texas 6th* | R+11 | R+25 | R+14 |
| June 1, 2021 | New Mexico 1st | D+18 | D+25 | D+7 |
| Nov. 2, 2021 | Ohio 11th | D+57 | D+58 | EVEN |
| Nov. 2, 2021 | Ohio 15th | R+19 | R+17 | D+2 |
| Jan. 11, 2022 | Florida 20th | D+53 | D+60 | D+7 |
| June 7, 2022 | California 22nd | R+11 | R+24 | R+14 |
| June 14, 2022 | Texas 34th* | D+5 | R+5 | R+10 |
| June 28, 2022 | Nebraska 1st | R+17 | R+5 | D+12 |
| Average | D+9 | D+9 | R+1 |