FiveThirtyEight
Meredith Conroy

We’re Monitoring How Progressive Candidates Are Doing

There are a few races we are watching tonight that could result in new progressives joining Congress. The first race is for the Senate in Wisconsin, where the field has recently and rapidly cleared for the progressive candidate, Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes. Barnes has racked up endorsements from Sen. Bernie Sanders, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, Indivisible and the Progressive Change Campaign Committee (PCCC) and is expected to face Sen. Ron Johnson in the fall. Meanwhile, in Vermont’s at-large district, the progressive-backed candidate is also expected to prevail. State Senate President Pro Tempore Becca Balint has support from Sanders as well as his political action committee, Our Revolution. Balint’s closest competition is Lt. Gov. Molly Gray; however, as Geoffrey already mentioned, recent polls show Balint leading. Beyond those contests, we are also watching a few races where Our Revolution has invested. They’ve backed Rep. Peter Welch for the Senate race in Vermont, for instance, and incumbent Rep. Mark Pocan in Wisconsin’s 2nd District (he is running unopposed). Finally, Rep. Ilhan Omar — who is part of “The Squad,” a group of progressive members of Congress who are mostly women of color — is facing a challenge from her right tonight; however, she is expected to hang on. She is backed by all of the progressive groups we are monitoring: Justice Dems, Our Revolution, PCCC, Indivisible and Sunrise Movement, in addition to Sanders and fellow Squad member Ocasio-Cortez. Here’s a table of all the races featuring progressives that I’ll be keeping an eye on tonight:
How progressives are doing tonight

Senate, House and gubernatorial candidates endorsed by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Indivisible, Justice Democrats, Our Revolution, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, Sen. Bernie Sanders or the Sunrise Movement and their results in Democratic primaries in Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont and Wisconsin, as of 7:20 p.m. Eastern

Candidate Office % Reporting Vote Share Status
Ilhan Omar* MN-05 0% 0.0%
Peter Welch VT Sen. 0 0.0
Becca Balint VT-AL 0 0.0
Mandela Barnes WI Sen. 0 0.0
Mark Pocan* WI-02 0 0.0

*Incumbent.

Sources: Indivisible, Justice Democrats, Our Revolution, PCCC, Sunrise Movement, Twitter, news reports, ABC News


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