FiveThirtyEight
Sarah Frostenson Nathaniel Rakich Jacob Rubashkin Geoffrey Skelley

[Editor’s Note: The following has been updated as of 8:21 a.m. Eastern with the latest results.]

Today, voters in Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont and Wisconsin headed to the polls, and two headlines coming out of tonight are Trump-endorsed candidates once again did well, as do progressive candidates (save Rep. Ilhan Omar).

To be clear, Omar won renomination, defeating former Minneapolis City Council member Don Samuels. But it was a close race — within 2 percentage points, with 99 percent of the expected vote in, much closer than the margin by which Omar won renomination in 2020. It does seem as if Omar might face unique challenges when it comes to clearing her party’s primary, as we talked about on the live blog earlier.

Meanwhile, in both Wisconsin and Connecticut, the Trump-backed candidate prevailed in statewide races. In Connecticut’s Senate GOP primary, Leora Levy — who Trump endorsed and twice nominated to be ambassador to Chile (she was never confirmed) — defeated former state House Minority Leader Themis Klarides. And in Wisconsin’s GOP primary for governor, the Trump-backed Tim Michels, a construction executive, defeated former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch. But as we said on the live blog, don’t make us tell you what this means for the “new” GOP vs. the “old” one.

Rather, the biggest piece of history coming out of tonight is that, with state Senate President Pro Tempore Becca Balint’s victory in the Democratic primary for Vermont’s at-large district, Vermont is now on track to elect its first woman to Congress.

Finally, here are updates on the other races that weren’t called when we put the live blog to bed.

  • Vote-counting has proceeded slowly in the special election for Minnesota’s 1st District, but Republican Brad Finstad ultimately prevailed over Democrat Jeff Ettinger 51 percent to 47 percent. The race was another test of the fallout from the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, and even though Finstad won, Democrats overperformed in this district. Ettinger ran well ahead of the district’s R+15 partisan lean.
  • In the GOP primary for Wisconsin attorney general, the race is still too close to call with Fond du Lac District Attorney Eric Toney and former state Assemblyman Adam Jarchow neck and neck. With 80 percent of the vote reporting, Toney is at 37.4 percent and Jarchow is at 36.8 percent. A third candidate, Karen Mueller, is further back with 26 percent. The winner will face incumbent Democratic Attorney General Josh Kaul in November.
  • Finally, in the Democratic primary in Wisconsin’s 3rd District, state Sen. Brad Pfaff, who had the endorsement of outgoing Democratic Rep. Ron Kind, won 41 percent to 30 percent. This will be a hard seat for Democrats to hold onto in November, though, as its FiveThirtyEight partisan lean is R+9.
Nathaniel Rakich

We’re up to 67 percent of the expected vote reporting in the GOP primary for Wisconsin governor, and Michels’s lead is holding steady. No major outlet has called this race yet, but I wouldn’t want to be Kleefisch.

Latest count in Wisconsin’s GOP primary for governor

Results of Wisconsin’s Republican primary for governor, as of 11:16 p.m. Eastern

Candidate Votes Vote %
Tim Michels 234,063 46.8%
Rebecca Kleefisch 217,777 43.6
Timothy Ramthun 26,752 5.4
Kevin Nicholson 16,102 3.2
Adam J. Fischer 4,964 1.0

67% of the expected vote has been reported.

Source: ABC NEWS

Nathaniel Rakich

The Associated Press has projected the winner of the Republican primary for Minnesota secretary of state is Kim Crockett, who has said that the 2020 election was rigged. She is the fifth outright election denier that the GOP has nominated for secretary of state, all in potentially close states (Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and New Mexico are the others).


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