What Went Down In Elections In Minnesota, Wisconsin, Vermont And Connecticut
As Alex just mentioned, Omar’s primary opponent has conceded. Interestingly, past political science research has shown that female incumbents are more likely than male incumbents to face competitive primary challenges, due to the perception that they are easier to unseat. I think that perception might be weakening, especially among Democrats … in any event, all other female Democratic incumbents have won, or are projected to win, their primaries tonight:
How Democratic women are doing tonight
Women running for Senate, House and governor and their results in Democratic primaries in Minnesota, Vermont and Wisconsin, as of 10:42 p.m. Eastern
| Candidate | Office | % Reporting | Vote Share | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betty McCollum* | MN-04 | 16% | 84.4% | ✓ Won |
| Amane Badhasso | MN-04 | 16 | 13.9 | ✗ Lost |
| Ilhan Omar* | MN-05 | 96 | 50.5 | Leading |
| AJ Kern | MN-05 | 96 | 0.5 | Trailing |
| Jill Abahsain | MN-07 | 27 | 59.5 | Leading |
| Alycia R. Gruenhagen | MN-07 | 27 | 40.5 | Trailing |
| Jen Schultz | MN-08 | 13 | 85.4 | ✓ Won |
| Niki Thran | VT Sen. | 59 | 5.1 | ✗ Lost |
| Brenda Siegel | VT Gov. | 32 | 100.0 | ✓ Won |
| Becca Balint | VT-AL | 60 | 59.5 | ✓ Won |
| Molly Gray | VT-AL | 60 | 38.1 | ✗ Lost |
| Sianay Chase Clifford | VT-AL | 60 | 0.9 | ✗ Lost |
| Sarah Godlewski | WI Sen. | 42 | 7.4 | ✗ Lost |
| Ann Roe | WI-01 | 11 | 100.0 | ✓ Won |
| Rebecca Cooke | WI-03 | 39 | 26.2 | Trailing |
| Deb Baldus McGrath | WI-03 | 39 | 19.7 | Trailing |
| Gwen Moore* | WI-04 | 47 | 100.0 | ✓ Won |
| Angie Craig* | MN-02 | 0 | 0.0 | ✓ Won |
| Jeanne Hendricks | MN-06 | 0 | 0.0 | ✓ Won |
So I think there’s like a meme on Twitter about close Wisconsin elections coming down to the margin in Waukesha County. But for true Sconnie Politicos (I used to work at Wisconsin Public Radio), there is a trio of counties that really matter and they are the WOW counties: Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington. Those three populous counties encircle Milwaukee, have lots of high-propensity voters and have traditionally been a source of conservative political activism in the state. Gov. Scott Walker is from the area. Those three counties have shifted left over the past decade, however, and I would be curious if the GOP primary electorate is actually shrinking there, as it grows in the more rural and post-industrial parts of the state. It’s a prime area for the type of voter who is ancestrally Republican, but allergic to Trump. As you can see in this map of the vote swing from 2016 to 2020, those counties form a big blue circle of leftward lurch.
That was certainly a close race for Omar! Much closer than her 2020 primary challenge.