FiveThirtyEight
Zoha Qamar

We have a few updates on the Trump endorsees front, including projected victories for members reported to be involved in Jan 6: Incumbent Ron Johnson is projected to win the primary in his reelection bid for Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate seat (no surprises here), as is Derrick Van Orden in the state’s 3rd District. Here’s the full slate:

How Trump’s endorsees are doing tonight

Senate, House and gubernatorial candidates endorsed by former President Donald Trump, and their results in Republican primaries in Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont and Wisconsin, as of 9:53 p.m. Eastern

Candidate Office % Reporting Vote Share Status
Leora R. Levy CT Sen. 30% 52.1% Leading
Michelle Fischbach* MN-07 11 100.0 ✓ Won
Pete Stauber* MN-08 5 92.5 Leading
Ron Johnson* WI Sen. 19 83.7 ✓ Won
Tim Michels WI Gov. 24 47.5 Leading
Derrick Van Orden WI-03 5 100.0 ✓ Won
Scott Fitzgerald* WI-05 50 100.0 ✓ Won
Tom Tiffany* WI-07 3 85.3 Leading
Tom Emmer* MN-06 0 0.0 ✓ Won
Bryan Steil* WI-01 0 0.0 ✓ Won

*Incumbent.

Sources: DonaldJTrump.com, news reports, ABC News

Geoffrey Skelley

One of the seats that will be hardest for Democrats to hold onto in 2022 is Wisconsin’s 3rd District, a GOP-leaning seat in western Wisconsin that’s long been represented by Democratic Rep. Ron Kind. But Kind is retiring, so the GOP is licking its chops. Nevertheless, four Democrats are battling for the right to give Democrats a chance of retaining this district. And with 18 percent of the expected vote in, state Sen. Brad Pfaff has a commanding lead with 58 percent, followed by businesswoman Rebecca Cooke at 19 percent. Pfaff was once Kind’s chief of staff and has the incumbent’s endorsement.

Latest count in Wisconsin’s 3rd District Democratic primary

Results of the Democratic primary for Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District, as of 9:46 p.m. Eastern

Candidate Votes Vote %
Brad Pfaff 6,856 57.5%
Rebecca Cooke 2,250 18.9
Deb Baldus McGrath 1,708 14.3
Mark Neumann 1,109 9.3

18% of the expected vote has been reported.

Source: ABC NEWS

Nathaniel Rakich

I think there’s a combination of factors here that are contributing to the competitiveness of Omar’s primary. First, Omar is probably the most controversial member of the Squad. While they are all outspoken progressives, Omar has gotten plenty of bad headlines for her anti-Semitic comments, adultery accusations and a possible campaign-finance scandal. Second, I think there is a lot of bad blood among Democrats in Minneapolis specifically, more so than in Boston or New York City or St. Louis. As Geoffrey mentioned, last year’s campaign around Question 2 and the Minneapolis mayoral election were fierce, fierce fights between the moderate and progressive wings of the party — fights that, notably, the moderate wing won. Third, it’s hard to rule out racism — specifically, anti-Muslim sentiment. The two members of the Squad who have faced the most serious primary challenges, Omar and Tlaib, are both Muslim.


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