What Went Down In Elections In Minnesota, Wisconsin, Vermont And Connecticut

One of the seats that will be hardest for Democrats to hold onto in 2022 is Wisconsin’s 3rd District, a GOP-leaning seat in western Wisconsin that’s long been represented by Democratic Rep. Ron Kind. But Kind is retiring, so the GOP is licking its chops. Nevertheless, four Democrats are battling for the right to give Democrats a chance of retaining this district. And with 18 percent of the expected vote in, state Sen. Brad Pfaff has a commanding lead with 58 percent, followed by businesswoman Rebecca Cooke at 19 percent. Pfaff was once Kind’s chief of staff and has the incumbent’s endorsement.

I think there’s a combination of factors here that are contributing to the competitiveness of Omar’s primary. First, Omar is probably the most controversial member of the Squad. While they are all outspoken progressives, Omar has gotten plenty of bad headlines for her anti-Semitic comments, adultery accusations and a possible campaign-finance scandal. Second, I think there is a lot of bad blood among Democrats in Minneapolis specifically, more so than in Boston or New York City or St. Louis. As Geoffrey mentioned, last year’s campaign around Question 2 and the Minneapolis mayoral election were fierce, fierce fights between the moderate and progressive wings of the party — fights that, notably, the moderate wing won. Third, it’s hard to rule out racism — specifically, anti-Muslim sentiment. The two members of the Squad who have faced the most serious primary challenges, Omar and Tlaib, are both Muslim.

We’re now at 96 percent of the expected vote in for Minnesota’s 5th District and Omar is still hanging in there — albeit barely so! She currently leads Samuels 51 to 48 percent.