FiveThirtyEight
Jacob Rubashkin

I think the answer is always going to be more complicated and harkens back to discussions on previous live blogs. Is Brian Kemp new GOP or old GOP? He wasn’t endorsed by Trump this time around, but he was in 2018, and until November 2020 would probably have qualified as one of the Trumpier politicians. Even in Wisconsin, is Michels new GOP and Kleefisch old GOP? Well, Kleefisch is backed by Pence and the Wisconsin GOP old guard, while Michels is backed by Trump. But at the same time, Michels has a longer history in state politics — he was the party’s nominee for Senate way back in 2004 — while it was Kleefisch who came to the fore in the tea party wave of 2010. So it’s all muddled.

Sarah Frostenson

Let’s circle back to the question of the new vs. old GOP. Nathaniel’s earlier point about who will win Connecticut’s Senate Republican primary got me thinking about how we’ve seen this dynamic play out so far this cycle, particularly in governors’ races.

There have been a lot of mixed signals on this front, no? I’m thinking about Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp prevailing over Trump-backed former Sen. David Perdue in May, while in Arizona last week the Trump-backed Kari Lake defeated the more establishment GOP candidate, Karrin Taylor Robson. And tonight, of course, in Wisconsin we’ve got another proxy battle between former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch and construction executive Tim Michels.

So how do we define the “new” GOP? And … how are they doing this cycle?

Nathaniel Rakich

As polls are about to close in Minnesota, note that results for the special election in the 1st District only will be delayed.


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