I’ve been thinking a lot about prospective vs. retrospective voting — asking voters to consider possible futures vs. framing the election as a referendum on the incumbent administration. The moderator framed the question in a prospective way, Harris reframed in a retrospective. Tl;dr, what Galen just said, but in political science language.
This is a good start for her, given that Trump mocked Biden’s mask wearing in the last debate — right before he came down with COVID-19.
Page asks a fundamental question: “What will a President Biden do about the pandemic?” Harris chooses to attack the Trump administration’s record on it.
Harris calls the pandemic “the greatest failure of any administration in the history of our country.” She’s going right for the jugular because she knows the American public overwhelmingly disapproves of Trump’s handling of the pandemic.
Like last week, the two top issues for Americans according to the FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos poll are COVID-19 and the economy. Once again, though, there is a partisan split on both of those, with Democrats much more likely to name COVID-19 as their top issue while Republicans are much likelier to name the economy.
COVID, the economy remain Americans’ top issues
Share of respondents who named each issue as the top one facing the U.S., according to a FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos poll
And it’s the pandemic, right out of the gate.
“The coronavirus is not under control” Page says. Not a question, and I’m glad she didn’t frame it as such.
The Trump campaign would obviously like to pivot away from concerns about the COVID-19 pandemic. That was never going to be possible given recent events, but to make the issue even more urgent, our friends at ABC News just reported that a total of 34 people connected to the White House have tested positive for the virus. ABC News had previously tallied 24 infections.
Ahead of the debate, Harris did a few very Utahn things — she visited This Is The Place Heritage Park, Temple Square in Salt Lake City, and wrote an opinion piece in Deseret News, which is owned by the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. In her piece she discussed her and Biden’s faith.
It’s quite the subtweet.
“I’m here to enforce them [the rules]” Page says to kick things off. Gee, I wonder what she might be referring to?
I do think we are probably in for a quieter debate than last time — at least in terms of interruptions and volume. Pence, in particular, is known for his mild-mannered style. Admittedly, it’s a low bar.
ABC’s Rachel Scott is wearing a mask in the debate hall. Were commentators doing that on air at the last debate? I don’t remember it.
Generally speaking I think our model errs on the generous side with low probability events … but maybe I’d take a 4 percent chance that Biden wins Utah, Geoff? It would probably be conditional on some sort of last-minute Romney endorsement, though.
How many times will people on TV/Twitter make prosecutor plays on words tonight? Stay tuned!
Because I suspect the issue MAY come up tonight, here’s a blog that is keeping a data count of how many people associated with the White House have contracted COVID-19.
Sarah, I’m interested to see whether Pence, as
Nathaniel put it this morning, attempts to modulate the Trump message about the virus from the last few days, or if he doubles down on the more reckless rhetoric about the virus and its seriousness.
Sarah, I too am curious to see just how Pence handles questions about the pandemic and Trump’s framing of his treatment. I’m also curious to see how hard he tries to push the “Harris as a far-left Trojan horse” narrative.
Sarah, I’m curious if Pence can steer the focus away from the pandemic and Trump’s treatment of his own illness! Or if he even tries.
Sarah, I’ll be watching to see if either Harris or Pence tries to forge an independent brand for themselves. Both of them might be eyeing the presidency in 2024; heck, this might even be the presidential matchup in four years!
Sarah, I’m curious about how Harris handles the unpopular positions she took during the primary that don’t jibe with Biden’s positions. During the primary, for instance, Harris said she supported decriminalizing undocumented immigrants crossing the border, abolishing private insurance, providing Affordable Care Act benefits for undocumented immigrants and abolishing the Electoral College.
Sarah, one thing I’m looking for: In the 2016 vice presidential debate, Pence sorta just pretended Trump hadn’t done and said a bunch of things Trump had done and said. I’m watching to see if he does the same thing again tonight, and whether Harris has been prepped specifically for that.
OK, we’re moments away from the debate. What will you be watching tonight?
Tonight’s debate is at the University of Utah, the flagship university of the Beehive State. Of course, Utah is a state that probably won’t be that close in November, but despite its strong Republican lean, it’s not a strongly pro-Trump state. He only won 45 percent of the vote here in 2016, while a conservative independent, Evan McMullin, won 21 percent (Hillary Clinton garnered 27 percent). At the moment, our forecast gives Trump a 96 in 100 chance of winning Utah, but with a projected vote margin of about 17 points. That would actually be the smallest Republican victory in Utah since 1992, when George H.W. Bush won the state by 16 points in a three-way race (Trump won by 18 points in 2016).
A few minutes before the start of the debate, Twitter is mostly talking about Trump and the coronavirus. Tonight’s two stars only make up about a third of social conversation.
Thanks for the polls, Fivey! You’re a very numerate fox.
Who Will Win The Vice Presidential Debate?
Will the VP debate affect people’s feelings towards the two vice presidential candidates — or even their vote choice? We’re partnering with Ipsos to once again track how the same respondents feel before and after the debate.
Like last week, the vast majority of respondents knew who they preferred going into the debate — and once again, more of them preferred Biden to Trump. Similarly, respondents still don’t trust Biden’s polling lead; many see the race as a toss-up, and around a fifth even think Trump is absolutely certain to win.
Supporters of each candidate are very certain that they will turn out to vote, though, and they’re pretty excited to do so. In fact, about 10 percent of Biden’s supporters say they have already voted, as have 5 percent of Trump’s.
Pence’s net favorability rating (favorability rating minus unfavorability rating) is -14 and Harris’s is +4, compared to -24 for Trump and +6 for Biden. But importantly, those favorability ratings for the vice presidential candidates are somewhat less baked in than those of the two presidential candidates: There is a reasonable chunk of people who say they have never heard of Pence or Harris, or have no opinion of them. That means Pence and Harris both have room to improve on that metric and make an impression tonight.
We’ll see whether that share of people without an opinion of Pence or Harris shrinks after the debate — and if so, whether that helps or hurts each candidate’s favorability ratings and changes the horse race at all!
Don’t make us sic evil Fivey on you.
Quick public service announcement before we get going here: If you haven’t checked out our new Fivey Fox FiveThirtyEight merch, well … I feel sorry for you! I really do. But good news: You. Have. One Day. Left!!!
OK, back to … the most important election in U.S. history! (That’s what everyone is saying, at least.)
Welcome!
Normally, we’d tell you that the stakes in a vice presidential debate are much lower than in a presidential debate, but uh… nothing about 2020 has been normal so far.
To recap: The next two presidential debates hang in limbo because President Trump has been diagnosed with COVID-19 and is possibly still contagious, and the number of White House officials who have tested positive for the virus keeps ticking up. (Vice President Pence tested negative on Tuesday, as did Sen. Kamala Harris.)
One reason there’s so much attention on each ticket’s No. 2 is that Trump’s diagnosis has put renewed attention on both his and Biden’s physical health — both men are well into their 70s, and America might want a closer look at who might take the reins in the event that the next term ends prematurely.
There’s a simpler reason, of course, too. Since Trump’s diagnosis, his administration hasn’t had to answer tough questions on how they’ve handled — or downplayed the severity of — COVID-19, which Pence will have to do this evening. We’ll be watching to see what chord he strikes, and whether Harris is pushed on some of her support for policies that are further to the left than those that Biden has endorsed.
Stay with us, and ping @538politics with any questions you have, and I’ll try to get them answered on this live blog.