FiveThirtyEight
Sarah Frostenson

That’s A Wrap

At the outset of this debate, I cautioned you that … nothing about 2020 has been normal so far, and while that is still true, one exception to this might have been the vice presidential debate.

It marked a dramatic departure from the first presidential debate in terms of civility, which was a welcome win for #democracy. But it also so happened that despite heightened attention on Harris and Pence this evening, given Trump’s COVID-19 diagnosis and the uncertainty of the upcoming presidential debates, they largely stuck to their talking points and didn’t really cover a lot of new ground.

In some ways, that is a win in and of itself — as the first rule of being a VP is to do no harm. Harris and Pence certainly didn’t seem to do that tonight, but it’s also not clear this debate really had an effect at all.

We’ll be back tomorrow with our post-debate poll from Ipsos to see what those watching the debate thought, but in the meantime, scroll back through to relive the live blog in all its chronological glory, and here are the live blog crew’s headlines:

Geoffrey: The Most Notable Debate Moment Was A Fly On Pence’s Head

Nathaniel: Harris Prosecutes The Case Against Trump While Pence Sticks To His Message

Julia: Pence Distances Himself And President Trump From The KKK, But Not From Questions About A Peaceful Transfer Of Power

Maggie: Americans Relieved To Hear People Evade Giving Honest Answers In Calm Voices

Galen: The VP Candidates Evade Tough Questions In Debate That Won’t Matter

Amelia: Harris and Pence Dodge Questions In A Quieter — And Kind of Forgettable — Debate

Kaleigh: An Unremarkable VP Debate, Which, Honestly I’m Here For

Julia: VP Candidates Avoid The Questions While Bored Americans Stare At A Fly

Chris: Harris And The Fly Most Discussed On Twitter

Meena: Did You See The Fly? Yes, There Are Still Many Days Left In 2020.

Nate Silver

Actually, a whole bunch of mini-takes:

1) It’s not likely to matter much.
2) The bases will be relatively happy.
3) The moderator, Susan Page, needed to follow up more.
4) Pence had a harder record to defend, and so he could lose on substance, even if it’s even on tactics.
5) Pence’s non-answer about respecting election results may be the most newsworthy moment of the night.
6) The fly sitting on Pence’s head for a full 2 minutes may be the most remembered part of the night.

Julia Wolfe

Thanks to the wonderful graphics team at NBC, we were able to get some numbers behind tonight’s civility. Just because the candidates actually let each other speak this time doesn’t mean they missed opportunities to get in some barbs.

Meredith Conroy

I think Harris was effective at criticizing the Trump-Pence record and explaining what she and Biden would do differently. And in turn, I think Pence was an effective counterbalance to Trump’s belligerence last week, with the exception of the question about accepting the results of the election, which is concerning, to put it mildly.

Geoffrey Skelley

Vice presidential debates rarely matter, and this one will probably be no different. I’m sure partisans were pleased with their respective candidate’s performance, but there weren’t that many surprises. Maybe we can pick out the fact that each candidate followed the example of the presidential nominees in a notable way.

Like Biden in the first presidential debate, Harris wouldn’t take a stance on expanding the size of the Supreme Court in response to Amy Coney Barrett’s expected confirmation ahead of the election. And like Trump, Pence wouldn’t simply say whether he would accept the election result and support the peaceful transfer of power should his side lose in November. But despite those potential headlines, I’m sure Trump will say or tweet something tomorrow — if not tonight — that will get as much play as anything from this debate.

Maggie Koerth

ABC commentators mentioning that pinkeye can be an early sign of COVID-19, but, of course, nobody can diagnose illness over the TV.

Nathaniel Rakich

After last week’s disaster, that was kind of a nice time warp back to 2004 or so. Pence and Harris both got a little testy, but no more than a usual debate. Pence really stayed focused on a few topics, including insisting that Biden would raise taxes and ban fracking. Harris started really strong by landing a lot of punches on the coronavirus, but she also didn’t have great answers on court packing or foreign policy. Ultimately, those topics either don’t matter much to the American people, or the public has already made their minds up on them. So I didn’t see anything tonight that would change the trajectory of the race.

Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux

Well, I was right that the volume would be lower than last time. But even though the responses were delivered more quietly, some of the fundamentals were kind of the same. Harris and Pence both dodged a lot of questions, accused each other of lying, and a lot of questionable things about policy were said, albeit in a more civil way. I’m especially struck by Pence’s refusal to commit to to a peaceful transfer of power. That was … noteworthy.

Julia Azari

My headline is too long.

Kaleigh Rogers

This was a pretty standard fare debate, which this year is kind of comforting. All of the expected shots were fired, and there were a few attempts to get some zingers in (but they were so forgettable I literally can’t recall any already). I can’t image this is going to sway anybody, but it’s the veep debate — it never does. I just enjoyed having a dose of civility and remembering what politics can look like.

Chris Jackson

Sentiment towards Pence turns sharply more positive at the end. However, in a testament to the surreal nature of this election, much of that is being generated by glib conversation about the fly that briefly landed on Pence’s head.

Maggie Koerth

That was a kinder, gentler pile of things that will need to be heavily fact-checked later.

Fivey Fox

Galen Druke

Tonight was a debate between (in past professional lives) a prosecutor and a radio host. It kinda felt that way.

Maggie Koerth

Welp. I’ve made up my mind. I’m voting for the fly.

Sarah Frostenson

The question could have been worded better, but the phenomenon the 8th grader is hitting on is a troubling one.

Negative partisanship, or hatred of the other party is at a 40-year high as FiveThirtyEight contributor Lee Drutman wrote earlier this week.

Kaleigh Rogers

And a lot of voters are disenchanted by the negativity.

Micah Cohen

Would the fly reach across the aisle, though?

Geoffrey Skelley

Politics ain’t beanbag. That’s what this question is missing.

Julia Azari

The 8th grader is doing the best they can. A lot of people get paid good money to write columns complaining about how divided we are.

Clare Malone

Page was a poor moderator. The lack of follow-ups was a critical point where she fell down. I found it pretty infuriating, to be honest. With the Biden-Trump debate, everyone knew it was a mess and there were no questions being answered. With this, they’re both polished and can get away with stalling (mostly Pence). Really bad.

Emily Scherer

Geoffrey Skelley

Instead of asking the candidates on stage one more pertinent question, we get one from an 8th grader about how things are just really divisive right now and that’s bad. Honestly sounds like a bad op-ed writer whining.

Maggie Koerth

I mean, uh, except for ABC.

Kaleigh Rogers

Honestly, viewers are never happy with the moderator. It’s a thankless, difficult job.

Maggie Koerth

Dear 8th grader, please stop watching TV news. It does not do a good job of conveying actual issues and the nuance of American politics.

Maggie Koerth

I’d agree with that, Nate. I kept being torn between being impressed and being frustrated with her.

Micah Cohen

This question sounds like it was written by an 8th grader.

Nate Silver

Susan Page asked a lot of good questions and very few follow-ups when the moment demanded them.

Fivey Fox

Pence just brought up mail-in voting. In a Fox News poll taken in September, 64 percent of likely voters said they favored allowing all citizens to vote by mail in the 2020 presidential election in light of the coronavirus pandemic, while 33 percent opposed allowing everyone to vote by mail. The result shows a typical partisan split, with 84 percent of Democrats in favor of allowing all citizens to vote by mail, and 57 percent of Republicans opposed.

Nate Silver

This response from Pence is actually quite Trumpian.

Fivey Fox

According to a late September poll from Monmouth University, 60 percent of registered voters felt at least somewhat confident that the 2020 election will be conducted fairly and accurately, compared to 39 percent that were not confident. However, in the same poll, 80 percent of registered voters expressed concern that election meddling could undermine the integrity of the results, compared to just 19 percent who were not concerned.

Clare Malone

So, uh, Pence hasn’t answered the question about peaceful transfer of power…

Laura Bronner

In a worrying shift from the last debate poll, whether people think the election will be fair is increasingly partisan. While the gap between Biden and Trump supporters was just about ten points last time, it’s grown to 30 points (!) in just a week: 70 percent of Biden supporters now think it will be fair, but just 40 percent of Trump supporters do. That’s a huge change.

Maggie Koerth

I demand an SNL skit about what it would be like if people in everyday life answered questions like politicians answer debate questions.

Julia Azari

And now Pence isn’t answering this question either.

Maggie Koerth

That’s boring, apparently.

Maggie Koerth

But who is answering questions directly tonight?

Julia Azari

This is a mind-bending debate question, about what happens if Trump refuses a peaceful transfer of power. “How will you respond if your opponent wildly breaks democratic values?” It seems like if things go that far off the rails, a public plan might not make sense. She isn’t answering the question directly, at any rate.

Meredith Conroy

We’re moving past the section on systemic racism, the Floyd protests and police violence against Black Americans. As Perry and I wrote about Biden’s biggest lead among Black voters came throughout June, following Floyd’s death and the early days of the protests against police brutality. That makes sense: Scholars have found that because of past experiences with discrimination and prejudice, Black people are more likely than other racial and ethnic groups to view their fate in a collective way.

Nate Silver

Biden is doing realllllly well among independents, though.

Sarah Frostenson

That’s a lot of #NeverTrump support Harris is naming, but as Perry has written, that probably doesn’t matter all that much — they’re already part of the Democratic Party.

Kaleigh Rogers

Pence going after Kamala’s record as AG was predictable. Though interestingly also what progressives criticize most about her.

Geoffrey Skelley

Pence claims that Trump has condemned white supremacists. Of course, at the last debate, Trump told Proud Boys to stand back and stand by, which would seem to be the opposite of condemnation.

Geoffrey Skelley

Harris goes after Pence, saying she won’t be lectured on how to carrying out the law. She notes that she’s prosecuted child abusers and other criminals.

Kaleigh Rogers

Wow I was deeply distracted by that fly and missed what sounds like an important part of the debate. I just … it was really big.

Nate Silver

I can’t stop laughing.

Micah Cohen

Was that a fly on Pence’s head?

Clare Malone

Perry, I think that if the Democrats win the White House and the Senate, additional justices will at least be a serious debate in the party. I feel like partisans will have a sense of urgency about what they can get done in office. Biden doesn’t seem like the kind to be temperamentally inclined toward doing that, but he might be pushed toward it under the right conditions.

Geoffrey Skelley

Lloyd Bentsen in 1988, Joe Biden in 2012, the fly in 2020.


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