FiveThirtyEight
Julia Azari

Some general thoughts about this veep debate. One is that Pence and Harris both reflect and resemble their parties’ bases better than the presidential candidates do. Pence represents the religious conservative constituency of the GOP and has a background in conservative media. Meanwhile, Harris represents the response to questions about Biden being the standard-bearer for a party that is heavily reliant on votes from women and racial minorities.

Laura Bronner

Per our survey with Ipsos, the economy was the top issue for respondents who are more likely to vote for Trump than Biden: 40 percent selected it, compared to only 9 percent of Biden supporters. COVID-19 is named much less frequently by Trump supporters: Just 17 percent said it was the most important issue facing the country. Violent crime follows in third place, and the Supreme Court is fourth, with 8 percent.

Voters behind Trump care most about the economy

Share of respondents who named each issue as the top one facing the U.S., among those who were more likely to vote for Trump than Biden, according to a FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos poll

issue share of trump supporters
The economy 40.0%
COVID-19 16.8
Violent crime 8.4
The Supreme Court 7.6
Abortion 6.2
Health care 6.0
Immigration 3.8
Other 2.3
Gun policy 2.2
Education 1.6
Racial inequality 1.3
Climate change 0.9
Economic inequality 0.7

Respondents were asked to rate how likely they were to vote for each candidate on a scale of 0-10. Respondents were deemed more likely to vote for whichever candidate they gave a higher score. Respondents who gave both candidates the same score are not included.

Data comes from polling done by Ipsos for FiveThirtyEight, using Ipsos’s KnowledgePanel, a probability-based online panel that is recruited to be representative of the U.S. population. The poll was conducted Sept. 30 – Oct. 6 among a general population sample of adults, with 2,994 respondents and a margin of error of +/- 2.0 percentage points.

Fivey Fox

The debate is turning to the economy. In a Quinnipiac University poll conducted in mid-September, 24 percent of likely voters said the economy was the most important issue in deciding their vote. Law and order was the second-most-common response at 17 percent, followed by the coronavirus and racial inequality tied at 13 percent, health care and the Supreme Court tied at 8 percent, climate change at 6 percent, and immigration at 4 percent.


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