Republican Undercard Debate: Live Coverage

Reminder: Governors love to brag about their record of job creation, but they have little actual control over their states’ economies. Then again, presidents have pretty limited influence over the economy too.

Rick Santorum says the last Democratic debate made it sound like the economy is struggling. It’s a fair point. The job market is getting better, but wage growth has been weak and many Americans don’t feel like they’re making much progress. That’s created a tricky dance for both parties.

Mike Huckabee just spoke about instituting a federal sales tax instead of an income tax. Such a proposal is not particularly popular among the general electorate. Only 43 percent of voters said they would see a candidate who proposed such a program more favorably, according to a June NBC/Wall Street Journal poll.

Chris Christie says he wants Americans to be able to file their taxes in 15 minutes, in part by removing tax deductions. That’s an idea economists could get behind — but it’s hard to do politically. Tax deductions have built-in constituencies who will fight to keep them; eliminating deductions is popular in theory, but it isn’t an idea that has the same kind of passionate support.

One interesting thing about the undercard debate: Three of the four candidates are governors. (Santorum is the lone exception.) That fits with a general — and, at least to me, surprising — pattern in the GOP race thus far: Governors seem to be struggling. At one point, nine of the 17 Republican candidates were governors. Since then, two governors (Rick Perry and Scott Walker) have dropped out of the race. Two others (Jim Gilmore and George Pataki) haven’t even built enough support to make it into the JV debate. Of the original nine governors, just two (Jeb Bush and John Kasich) are still in the top ranks.

If I were to lay my odds on who the media will declare the winner of the JV debate, it would look about like this, since Christie is probably both the best debater and the best story. Christie EVEN Huckabee 5-2 Jindal 6-1 Santorum 15-1

https://twitter.com/the7joker77/status/664227538068090880 Brendon, I think the answer is multifaceted. First, though, here’s the chart I think you’re talking about:

For one thing, the field is considerably larger this time than last, which makes Bush’s job much more difficult than Romney’s was. Although Rubio is considerably more conservative than Bush, he also occupies an establishment lane. I’d also point out that the Republican primary electorate is more conservative now than it was four years ago. Finally, Romney ran hard to the right on the important issue of immigration (compared to Bush), which makes him a better fit with the primary electorate.

One way to figure out where the candidates stand on the issues is to watch them give speeches or perform in debates, like tonight’s. But here’s another way: Go to their websites and see what issues they prioritize.

The average GOP candidate has 9.5 issues on his or her website. Most — but not all — of the candidate’s sites include comments on education, immigration, guns, health care and taxes. Donald Trump’s site lists just five of the issues we’ve tracked in the chart above. Only the website of George Pataki — who’s not included in the chart because he didn’t make either the varsity or junior varsity debate — lists fewer; his doesn’t have any policy positions.

Sometimes you just have to ¯_(ツ)_/¯ about how the participants in the Republican debates are determined. Fox Business Network announced in October that the debate lineups for tonight would be chosen based on the four most recent live-interview polls “conducted” through Nov. 4. And on Nov. 4, Politico reported that the lineups would be announced on Nov. 5. So when Fox revealed the participants, it became clear they meant “released” through Nov. 4, not “conducted.” That difference in wording may seem minor, but it has a big effect. Chris Christie and Mike Huckabee averaged 2.25 percent in the four most recent live-interview polls released as of Nov. 4. That falls just short of the 2.5 percent that was needed to appear in tonight’s main-stage debate. So they’ll appear in the undercard debate, at 7 p.m. But had the four-survey average included a Marist College poll that was conducted through Nov. 4 but released on Nov. 9, Christie would have had 2.5 percent and Huckabee 2.75 percent. That Marist poll — in which Huckabee received 3 percent and Christie 2 percent — would replace an IBD/TIPP poll in which both received only 1 percent. At least Christie and Huckabee will be part of tonight’s festivities. The same cannot be said of George Pataki. Pataki needed to hit 1 percent in one of the last four live-interview surveys to be in the undercard debate. As of polls released through Nov. 4, he hadn’t. He earned 1 percent in the Marist poll, however. That one poll could make the difference between Christie and Huckabee being seen by 14 million people in the varsity debate or 2 million in the JV debate (if the viewership for the last debate is any guide) and between Pataki being in or out is troublesome. It lends credence to claims that polls are at best an inexact proxy for where the candidates stand with Republican voters.

Writing “what to watch for” posts is a thankless task, but it seems as though politics editors in Washington and New York (us included) are having a particularly tough time coming up with narrative frames in advance of tonight’s debate. Ben Carson’s fracas with the news media and Jeb Bush’s with Marco Rubio have been the predominant topics of Beltway conversation lately, but both stories have been deeply reported and are potentially past their sell-by date. That’s probably a good thing. It means that reporters and pundits may watch tonight’s debates (undercard and main stage) with a relatively open mind. And maybe the candidates will be asked about real news, like the campus controversies at Yale and the University of Missouri, instead of a bunch of horse-race questions.

Chris Christie is in the undercard debate tonight, and Harry Enten thinks that may actually help him. Nate and I are less convinced, but we’re willing to hear him out …

We’ve live-blogged every presidential debate so far, and the day after each, everyone comes into the office late, sipping coffee, and we have a discussion that goes something like: FiveThirtyEight-er No. 1: Last night went well, right? FiveThirtyEight-er No. 2: Yeah, it was fun, but it was looooong. Maybe next time we shouldn’t live-blog the undercard debate. Everyone within earshot: Yes! Let’s skip the undercard debate. And yet here we are — again. So why do we persist? We have philosophical reasons: Using polls to decide who gets into the main-stage and undercard debates — as every debate sponsor has done — is suspect. There are also practical reasons: Undercard debaters can become main-stage debaters (see Fiorina, Carly), and main-stage debaters can get demoted, as Chris Christie and Mike Huckabee were for tonight’s undercard debate in Milwaukee, hosted by Fox Business Network and The Wall Street Journal. Christie, for example, isn’t likely to win the Republican nomination, but he has an outside chance. Maybe he’ll shine tonight, with just three other candidates on stage to contend with. Or maybe Huckabee will benefit from being a small fish in a tiny pond. Or — anything is possible! — perhaps tonight will be the night Rick Santorum and Bobby Jindal turn it all around! So hang out with us through both debates (we’ll have two separate live blogs). Send us your questions @FiveThirtyEight, or just leave a comment.

We’ll be responding to questions and comments all night — tweet@FIVETHIRTYEIGHT or leave a comment.