I think we have chaos in the primary. With chaos, the most important thing is to win one of the first two contests, Iowa and New Hampshire.
- Christie’s net favorability rating has risen in New Hampshire. In a field of 15, it’s conceivable he could win there with support in the low 20s. (Huntsman won 17 percent of the vote there.)
- A social conservative unacceptable to the party overall could win in Iowa (like Ben Carson who is leading there currently).
- If you can get the fight down to an arch-social conservative and Christie, Christie could win that fight. It’s not a probable outcome. It’s a long shot, but less of a long shot than I think most people think.