FiveThirtyEight
Nate Silver

Micah, Off the top of my head, I can think of four plausible answers to that question, none of which are mutually exclusive:
  1. Santorum and Huckabee’s policies wouldn’t necessarily benefit blue-collar voters, so there’s no natural allegiance there.
  2. The GOP has become a highly ideological party; even blue-collar Republican voters principally put ideological and cultural concerns above economic concerns, and other candidates speak to those better than Santorum and Huckabee.
  3. Blue-collar voters within the GOP feel disenfranchised by the Republican establishment, so candidates like Trump have more appeal to them.
  4. Santorum and Huckabee are old news. Maybe they are overperforming among blue-collar voters — but that could mean getting 4 percent of the vote instead of 2 percent.

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