FiveThirtyEight
Harry Enten

Chris Christie just spoke about how could Republicans could fight against Democrats who are offering “free stuff” from the government. Keep in mind that more Americans (50 percent) than not (46 percent) want “a smaller government providing fewer services” than a “bigger government providing more services” according to a 2015 Pew Research Center poll. Moreover, the vast majority (68 percent) of Republicans agreed with that sentiment in a 2014 Pew Research Center poll.
Nate Silver

Micah, Off the top of my head, I can think of four plausible answers to that question, none of which are mutually exclusive:
  1. Santorum and Huckabee’s policies wouldn’t necessarily benefit blue-collar voters, so there’s no natural allegiance there.
  2. The GOP has become a highly ideological party; even blue-collar Republican voters principally put ideological and cultural concerns above economic concerns, and other candidates speak to those better than Santorum and Huckabee.
  3. Blue-collar voters within the GOP feel disenfranchised by the Republican establishment, so candidates like Trump have more appeal to them.
  4. Santorum and Huckabee are old news. Maybe they are overperforming among blue-collar voters — but that could mean getting 4 percent of the vote instead of 2 percent.
Micah Cohen

Both Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee emphasize blue-collar workers’ concerns, like manufacturing, more than the average Republican candidate. Whenever they do it, I think, “Yeah, that’s a message that should resonate with the GOP electorate.” But it doesn’t seem to? What’s the deal? Why isn’t there more of a blue-collar pitch to make in this primary?

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