FiveThirtyEight
Julia Azari

I think under different conditions, the strategy of connecting Ukraine to the Russia investigation might work. I think people are suspicious of impeachment inquiries that seem like blatant political moves. But Trump is pretty unpopular and I think that might create more space in this regard.

Nathaniel Rakich

I think you’re right, Micah, that it will only really work with the Republican base — and it could even backfire among independents. According to a CNN poll, Republicans say 87 percent to 8 percent that Democrats are impeaching Trump because they are out to get him at all costs (as opposed to genuinely thinking he did something wrong). Independents say Democrats’ intentions are pure 47 percent to 40 percent. And independents also think, 51 percent to 38 percent, that Republicans oppose impeachment because they are out to protect Trump at all costs.

Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux

Also, doesn’t it help Republicans if they can simply make the Ukraine saga harder to follow? If tying it to the Russia investigation muddies the clear narrative Democrats are trying to put forward, that’s good for Republicans too.


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