FiveThirtyEight
Nathaniel Rakich

I think you’re right, Micah, that it will only really work with the Republican base — and it could even backfire among independents. According to a CNN poll, Republicans say 87 percent to 8 percent that Democrats are impeaching Trump because they are out to get him at all costs (as opposed to genuinely thinking he did something wrong). Independents say Democrats’ intentions are pure 47 percent to 40 percent. And independents also think, 51 percent to 38 percent, that Republicans oppose impeachment because they are out to protect Trump at all costs.

Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux

Also, doesn’t it help Republicans if they can simply make the Ukraine saga harder to follow? If tying it to the Russia investigation muddies the clear narrative Democrats are trying to put forward, that’s good for Republicans too.

Sarah Frostenson

I don’t know, Micah — I think there is a case to be made that some Democrats have long wanted to impeach President Trump. My mind keeps going to back to Rashida Tlaib calling for him to be impeached only hours after being sworn in, and if I’m a Republican who does think that Trump wasn’t proven guilty of obstructing justice or doing anything illegal during the Mueller investigation, I don’t know how I think of this situation differently. But I guess to your point — maybe this doesn’t appeal to anyone outside of the GOP base.


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