Answering Reader Questions On Voter Turnout
Madeleine from Falls Church, Virginia: We’re obviously seeing a massive uptick in early voting (both in person and mail ballots) compared to previous election cycles. Is that at all indicative of greater turnout for the election generally, or are the people voting early people who would under normal circumstances show up in person on Election Day?
Early voting data at this point can’t reveal if turnout will be notably high in 2020. That’s because voters who have already cast ballots weeks before the election are more likely to be people who would vote anyway. That’s probably especially true of Democrats this year, since polls show they are far more likely to vote early than Republicans, but remember many early voters may just be those who would have voted on Election Day, anyway and it’s not a signal that there will be an increase in the number of people who turn out.
But there are some indicators that suggest turnout might be especially juiced in 2020. Gallup found in late September that 71 percent of registered voters were more enthusiastic about voting in 2020 than in past elections — an all-time high since Gallup first asked this question in 1996. There’s also evidence that voter turnout tends to increase in more polarized political environments, and there’s little doubt things are very polarized right now and that voters care deeply about the outcome. In August, the Pew Research Center found that 83 percent of voters thought that it “really matters” who wins the presidential election, higher than in any election going back to 2000.
So polling plus sizable early voting may point to high turnout, but it’s going to take a lot to surpass 2008 presidential turnout. That was the highest turnout in a presidential election since the ratification of the 26th Amendment lowered the voting age to 18 in 1971 (62 percent of eligible voters cast a ballot). That means about 150 million voters will have to cast ballots in 2020 — 13 million more than in 2016 (2016 wasn’t too far from 2008; 60 percent of eligible voters cast a ballot then).
That may well happen, but we can’t really know until we have most — or even all of the votes counted.