FiveThirtyEight
Maya Sweedler

That’s a great question. And depending on how these ballots are handled, the state GOP could really be shooting itself in the foot. The counties in which these party-furnished boxes have been reported — Fresno, Los Angeles and Orange — are home to some of the few remaining pockets of California Republicans. Orange County was famously the closest thing the party had to a state stronghold until the 2018 midterms; Fresno County is a GOP-leaning swing county (it voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, but also sends Republicans Devin Nunes and Tom McClintock to Congress). Meanwhile, the GOP won a special election in the 25th Congressional District, which includes part of L.A. County, earlier this year after losing the seat to a Democratic challenger in the 2018 midterms.


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