Let’s Talk About That Big GOP Surge In Voter Registration Numbers
In the past couple of weeks, a number of states like Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania have seen huge upticks in voter registration numbers. Geoffrey, you wrote something on this recently. Tell me, what’s happening? Are more Republicans registering in a state like Florida?
Geoffrey: At first glance, the answer is yes. More Republicans are registering to vote in a state like Florida. Since the deadline to register for Florida’s March presidential primary, Republicans have registered about 147,000 more voters than Democrats have, and the share of Republican registrants has ticked up.
However, this is complicated by the fact that: 1) more Democrats registered in the months before the presidential primary because they were more engaged by the competitive Democratic nomination contest than Republicans were; and 2) many voters who register as independent tend to be younger, and we know that those voters are more likely to vote Democratic, even if they don’t identify openly that way.
Moreover, party identification can be a lagging indicator of who a person supports — meaning someone may have previously supported the party they’re switching their party registration to now.
So … the long answer is that we can’t actually know whether more Republican voters registered than Democratic ones!
Kaleigh: I’ve also seen a lot of reporting about Republicans “closing the gap” in states like Pennsylvania, but what they’ve really done is narrowed the gap. There are still currently 700,853 more Democrats than Republicans registered in Pennsylvania.
Nathaniel: Yeah, I wouldn’t put much stock in those registration numbers if you’re trying to understand how the election might swing. The polls are just a much more direct way to answer that question — they ask directly who a person supports instead of depending on an unreliable proxy for it like registration.
And the polls are designed to pick up all voters — new and old!
Geoffrey: That’s right, Nathaniel. You might even say that voter registration numbers are a Rorschach test of sorts — you can sort of make what you want of them, especially with the increasing number of voters who register as independent, which makes it even harder to draw big conclusions from these numbers.
Kaleigh: Earlier this year, Nathaniel and I reported on how the pandemic had taken a huge toll on new voter registrations. At the beginning of the year, we were on track to see a record number of new voters registering, but with lockdowns (and, in particular, the closure of DMVs), those new registration numbers plummeted:
David Becker of the Center for Election Innovation & Research, who was one of our sources, recently told NPR they’re seeing a bit of a rebound but “[I]t’s not making up for all of the activity that we’ve lost due to the pandemic.”
Nathaniel: Yeah, and new registrations are really a drop in the bucket compared to existing registrations. So even if a majority of new registrants are voting for Trump, if existing registrants strongly support Biden, it wouldn’t matter.
Sarah: OK, between early voting data and voter registration numbers … how should I be factoring this into how I think about the election?
Is it an indication that voter turnout/enthusiasm might be high? Or should I disregard this?
Geoffrey: Look to the polls. First, they show that Biden is generally doing better than Trump among people who identify as independent. So, even if the GOP has added more voters, a Biden edge among independents could override that.
Second, for turnout I’d look to polls about enthusiasm and interest. For instance, Gallup found in late September that 71 percent of registered voters said they were more enthusiastic about voting in 2020 than in past elections — the highest percentage since Gallup started asking this question in 1996.