What Went Down At Biden’s State Of The Union And Texas’s Primary Election

Happy Wednesday, everybody! We’re officially in the morning post- Texas’s Primary Day, so here are a few notable updates that happened while you were probably sleeping:

• The Attorney General race: We mentioned this last night, but embattled incumbent Ken Paxton is officially headed to a runoff against Land Commissioner George P. Bush. Per the New York Times, with more than 95 percent of the vote reported, Paxton got 42.7 percent of the vote versus Bush’s 22.8 percent. In a radio interview this morning, though, Paxton assured his base that “if conservatives unite … we can end the Bush dynasty.”
• The Lieutenant Governor Race: Incumbent Dan Patrick easily sailed through the Republican primary last night — earning about 76 percent of the vote. But it looks like Democrats Mike Collier and Michelle Beckley are headed to a runoff this May to see who will challenge the Republican in November.
• The Land Commissioner Race: In the one open statewide seat, state Sen. Dawn Buckingham, who had the backing of Trump, received the most votes in her bid for the GOP nomination for land commissioner. Unfortunately for her, though, she didn’t earn over 50 percent of the vote, which means she’ll go to a runoff against Tim Westley, a pastor and former congressional candidate. There will also be a runoff on the Democratic side between conservationist Jay Kleberg and Sandragrace Martinez.
• The 28th District: Overnight, the New York Times announced that incumbent Rep. Henry Cuellar and Jessica Cisneros are officially headed to a runoff. With over 95 percent of the vote reported, Cuellar has a small edge at 48.5 percent, while Cisneros trails closely behind him at 46.8 percent.
• The 3rd District: Rep. Van Taylor, one of the few conservative congressmen who faced a difficult reelection bid, didn’t hit the 50 percent mark outright and is now headed to primary runoff after facing a group of challengers who attacked his vote for a commission to investigate the insurrection at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6. According to the New York Times with more than 95 percent of the vote reported, Taylor is still barely clinging onto first place with 48.7 percent of the vote, while former Collin County Judge Keith Self sits at roughly 27 percent.
• The 8th District: In the hard-fought Republican primary in the state’s 8th District, Morgan Luttrell, a former Navy SEAL, has declared victory, and it does seem with 91 percent of the vote reported that Luttrell will avoid a runoff. His most formidable opponent was political operative Christian Collins, but he currently has roughly 22 percent of the vote compared to Luttrell’s 53 percent.
• The 15th District: Though the Republican primary in this district is settled, two Democrats — lawyer Ruben Ramirez and business owner Michelle Vallejo — are poised to head to a runoff, earning 28.3 percent and 20.1 percent of the vote, respectively

It was a busy night in politics, both for policy with the State of the Union and for elections with Texas’s primaries. In the latter, though, there wasn’t a lot of statewide drama. There were a number of things we were watching tonight, but one of the main stories ended up being scandal-ridden Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, who will now face a primary runoff in May, probably against Land Commissioner George P. Bush, although as of 12:25 a.m. Eastern the No. 2 in that race hadn’t yet been called.

I mentioned earlier tonight the strong hold that Trump continues to have on the GOP in Texas (many Republicans in the state have a popular view of the former president), and indeed, there were many strong performances by Republican incumbents who voted against certifying the 2020 election in the U.S. House — every one handily won renomination or looked to be on their way in a couple of uncalled races.

But in an example of how our politics are often full of contradictions, most Republicans who voted to certify the election did well, too — except Rep. Van Taylor, who is hovering right around the 50 percent mark and may not be able to avoid a runoff in the 3rd District. As we wrote about earlier, Taylor faced a number of attacks for his vote to certify the 2020 election results and for his support of a commission to investigate the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol.

Many congressional primaries are too close to call at this point, in particular the 28th District, where the Democratic primary is neck-and-neck between Rep. Henry Cuellar and challenger Jessica Cisneros, and may be headed for a runoff. Should Cisneros win, though, she would join the ranks of fellow progressive Greg Casar, who handily won the primary for the open race in the safely blue 35th District, helping notch another high-profile win for progressives in Texas’s Democratic primaries tonight.

That said, it’s worth noting that despite all the excitement, tonight is a bit of a false start to the 2022 primary season. That’s because the next state primaries aren’t until the beginning of May, two months from now. Unlike in a presidential primary year, when there are multiple primaries practically every Tuesday in March, that’s very much not the case in this midterm year. So we’ll have to wait a bit before we can see how future nomination races play out.

As always, thanks for following along, and scroll back through to relive the liveblog in all its chronological glory. And if there are any big developments in the races too close to call now, we’ll post an update here tomorrow.

We’re wrapping up the live blog shortly, so let’s take a final look at how Black candidates for House and governor fared tonight. Although many races still aren’t called, we know that at least five Black Democrats have won their primaries, while at least two Black Republicans and two Black Democrats have lost theirs.

Progressives have had a pretty good night in Texas. Casar, who is endorsed by the Sunrise Movement, Indivisible, Sen. Bernie Sanders, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Our Revolution and Justice Dems, won his open primary in Texas’s 35th District. In Texas’s 30th District, Crockett, who is endorsed by Our Revolution, is leading in that open primary. And as noted throughout the night, Cisneros is leading in Texas’s 28th District in a close race against incumbent Cuellar that might go to a runoff. And in Texas’s 16th, incumbent Rep. Veronica Escobar, who is endorsed by the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, beat back her lone challenger.

As we wrote in 2020, thanks to an increasingly powerful progressive campaign apparatus, the left wing of the Democratic Party is now an established player in the party’s primaries, and in 2022 that apparatus is back at it. This year, as in the last two election cycles, FiveThirtyEight will once again be tracking the success of candidates endorsed by progressive groups and progressive leaders to monitor the movement’s influence within the party, so we’ll see you at the next primary.

It’s been another long night covering a Texas election, but I’ve gotta say … I agree with Nathaniel’s earlier assessment that there weren’t too many surprises tonight. Most incumbents (both Republicans and Democrats) beat a slate of challengers and several marquee races (like the Texas gubernatorial primary races) were quick calls. What I will say, though, is that some pundits might look at tonight as a win for progressives in the state. We discussed this a bit on the podcast, but you have folks like Cisneros in the 28th District, Casar in the 35th District and O’Rourke for governor who either 1) handily won their races or 2) are close to beating someone far more moderate. As Texas gets slightly bluer with each presidential cycle, I’m curious if this is a trend we can expect going forward — or if this is a fluke year?

Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller, a Republican, is winning his primary with just 59 percent of the vote, according to the New York Times. That’s low for an incumbent but familiar territory for Miller, who won the 2018 primary as an incumbent with only 56 percent of the vote. Miller has courted a lot of controversy in his two terms in office, from spreading fake news on social media to calling then-presidential candidate Hillary Clinton a slur I won’t repeat here, to being investigated for criminal misuse of taxpayer funds (no charges were filed). His main opponent, state Rep. James White, is winning just 31.1 percent of the vote, which isn’t enough to force a runoff. Miller had a close general election in 2018. His Democratic opponent this fall will be cannabis attorney Susan Hays, who convincingly won her primary tonight.

A runoff in the Democratic primary for Texas’s 28th District remains a distinct possibility. With 80 percent of the vote in, per the New York Times, Rep. Henry Cuellar now trails challenger Jessica Cisneros by 2.6 points, 46.4 percent to 49.0 percent. But third wheel Tannya Benavides has 4.6 percent, so it’s possible neither Cisneros nor Cuellar will clear the majority hurdle in the end. Much of the outstanding vote appears to be from areas where Cuellar has run well, so he may be more likely to gain ground at this point to force a runoff in May.

And as sometimes happens, there are complications with getting a read on what a 59 percent share of the primary vote really means for Rep. Pat Fallon. This is actually Fallon’s first time running in a congressional primary, as he first won in the 2020 general election after becoming the GOP nominee at a party committee conference in August 2020, not in the primary that March. That’s because the already-renominated Rep. John Ratcliffe had resigned to become Director of National Intelligence, so the party needed to replace Ratcliffe on the ballot. So between having never had to go before the GOP primary electorate and having only previously represented slightly more than half of the constituents in the new 4th District, Fallon winning almost 60 percent in his primary isn’t too shabby!

While House incumbents who voted to certify the election results have been having a good night, so have the incumbents who voted not to certify the election results. All 14 seeking reelection have either won or are on track to win with over 50 percent of the vote, thus avoiding a runoff — the candidate with the smallest share is Rep. Pat Fallon in the 4th District, with 59 percent of the vote.

In that wild race for Texas Railroad Commissioner, incumbent Wayne Christian has slipped below the 50 percent mark, according to Decision Desk HQ, so he’ll likely be forced into a runoff. Fighting for second place are attorney Sarah Stogner and engineering consultant Tom Slocum, with 15 and 14.3 percent of the vote, respectively.

Me waiting for more results from the Texas 28th District’s Democratic primary.

And just an update on the delays in Harris County. Earlier tonight, the Texas secretary of state put out a statement saying the office was “closely monitoring” the situation and that the secretary of state’s office “stands ready to assist Harris County election officials […] in complying with the Texas Election Code requirements.” Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick also released a statement, blaming Democrats for the delays in Harris County.

As for whom Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton may face in the likely Republican primary runoff, it seems Land Commissioner George P. Bush has put a little distance between him and former Texas Supreme Court Justice Eva Guzman. Bush now leads her by about 4 points for that second spot, 22 percent to 18 percent, with about three-fourths of the vote counted, according to the New York Times. Rep. Louie Gohmert is just behind Guzman in fourth place with 17 percent.

One potentially endangered GOP incumbent we’ve been monitoring is Rep. Van Taylor, who has come under fire from the right for voting to certify the 2020 election results and backing the establishment of a bipartisan commission to investigate the Jan. 6 assault on the U.S. Capitol. As things stand, he could just squeak out an outright win in the primary in the 3rd District — or end up in a runoff by the narrowest of margins. Right now, Taylor has 51 percent with about 92 percent reporting, according to the AP. Should he end up with just shy of a majority, it looks like former Collin County Judge Keith Self, sitting at 26 percent, would advance to face him.

For all the action in the GOP primary for attorney general — incumbent Ken Paxton will likely advance to a runoff, but it’s unclear against whom — the Democratic race may also be headed toward a runoff. There, former ACLU attorney Rochelle Garza leads with 42 percent, while former Galveston Mayor Joe Jaworski has a slight edge over attorney Lee Merritt for the second spot, 21 percent to 18 percent. Garza originally was running in the 34th District, but she dropped out when Rep. Vicente Gonzalez decided to run there instead of in the successor seat to his current district, the 15th. Now she could find herself running statewide against Paxton (if they both advance from likely runoffs), which could be Democrats’ best (maybe only) shot at competing for a statewide office in November.

In Texas’s 15th District, we’re probably headed to a runoff in the Democratic primary between attorney andveteran Ruben Ramirez, who has 28.6 percent of the vote according to the New York Times, and one of three other candidates: attorney John Rigney, small business owner Michelle Vallejo and educator Eliza Alvarado, who are bunched up at 20.4 percent, 19.5 percent and 16.6 percent of the vote, respectively. Ramirez is the preferred choice of a lot of Democrats in D.C., who think he’s the best option to hold onto this highly competitive seat. More interesting, however, is that roughly the same number of votes seem to have been cast in the GOP primary (21,915) as in the Democratic contest (22,834), which is ominous for Democrats trying to hold onto a historically blue seat.

As we wait for more results to come in, I’m honestly struck by how few surprises there have been so far tonight. Abbott and O’Rourke won big, as expected. Paxton looks like he’s going to a runoff. Cisneros-Cuellar is close. And other incumbents and favorites are winning handily.

With Gonzales being declared the winner of his primary, according to the Associated Press, a majority of Republican incumbents who voted to certify the 2020 election results — Gonzales and Reps. Chip Roy and Michael McCaul, who ran uncontested — have now won their primaries. The other two, Reps. Dan Crenshaw and Van Taylor, are running at 76 and 51 percent of the vote respectively, with about 70 percent of results in.

Rep. Tony Gonzalez is likely getting the nomination in the Texas’s 23rd Congressional District (he currently has 78.7 percent of the vote, according to the New York Times, and the Associated Press has called the race for him). But Big Lie proponent and actual insurrection participant Alma Arredondo-Lynch had a not-insignificant showing: She currently has 14.8 percent of the vote, according to the Times.

Now let’s check in on Trump’s chosen candidates. So far, all of them have either won their race or are leading, though a good share — 7 out of 19 — ran unopposed. If this trend continues, all of Trump’s endorsees will win by a large enough margin to avoid a primary runoff, though it’s hard to say whether Trump’s endorsement was decisive, or if they would have gotten such a large share of the vote anyway.

We forgot to mention this earlier, but incumbent Dan Patrick easily won the Republican nomination for Texas lieutenant governor with 75 percent of precincts reporting, per the New York Times.

Nathaniel, that’s a great question (classic way to gain time during a live interview to figure out your answer). Cuellar won about 58 percent in a district that Biden won 52 percent in back in 2020, so there’s evidence he’s got decently strong local appeal. But the scandal may have eliminated that potential advantage, along with some shifts in the makeup of the district (62 percent of Cuellar’s old seat is in the new 28th District). So I’m tempted to say it won’t matter much in the end.

That’s a great question, Nathaniel … but it’s honestly hard to tell? Cuellar so far has campaigned as a moderate with more experience, but Cisneros has the backing of congressional progressives, like New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Sen. Bernie Sanders. If Cisneros sticks to focusing her campaign on local issues impacting the district versus national ones that typically animate the progressive base (but not necessarily Hispanic voters), she could stand a chance of winning in November?

With a D+7 partisan lean, Texas’s 28th District could be competitive this November, especially if a red wave develops. I know some Democrats are worried that the progressive Cisneros would be less electable than the more moderate Cuellar, but now that Cuellar is under federal investigation, I’m not so sure (our research has shown that scandals typically cost candidates several percentage points). Who do you all think would be the stronger candidate for Democrats at this point?

Another Big Lie race to keep an eye on is Texas’s 15th District. A little background: In 2020, Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez narrowly beat his Republican challenger, Monica De La Cruz, in what had long been a Democratic stronghold in the south of the state. Gonzalez won with just 6,588 more votes than De La Cruz. When state Republicans redrew the 15th District during the redistricting process last year to make it more competitive, Gonzalez decided to run in the safer 34th Congressional District instead. But De La Cruz is sticking with the 15th, and she’s performing well in tonight’s GOP primary, with 57.4 percent of the vote, according to the New York Times (the Democratic race, meanwhile, will likely go to a run off). De La Cruz has embraced the Big Lie, claiming that mail-in ballots provided opportunities for fraud and questioned her loss in 2020.

Some good analysis here from my former Texas Tribune colleague, Patrick Svitek. As he notes, the results from Starr and Zapata counties should help us better gauge Cisneros’s chances of beating Cuellar in tonight’s primary.

Although the Democratic race in Texas’s 28th District is tightening, the progressive candidate, Jessica Cisneros is still leading long-term incumbent Henry Cueller, with 59 percent reporting per the New York Times. Cueller is one of the most moderate Democratic House members, and Cisneros tried to unseat him two years ago, when she lost by just 4 points. This year she has the support of progressive groups such as Sunrise Movement, Indivisible, Sen. Bernie Sanders, Ocasio-Cortez, Our Revolution, Justice Dems, and the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, as well as Emily’s List.

Of the four candidates in Texas endorsed by the progressive groups we are tracking, all of them are currently leading in their races.

Texas, please count your votes faster. Love, Nathaniel.

You have to be careful not to overstate what primary turnout means — after all, as a general rule, people don’t tend to vote in primaries for offices other than president. Statewide races do a lot to drive turnout, and with more activity in the gubernatorial and attorney general races, the GOP probably had more high-profile primary contests on the ballot in Texas today. But so far tonight, the relative turnout in the Republican primary has far outdistanced the Democratic primary, including in comparison to the 2018 primaries. Four years ago, about 1.5 million voters participated in the GOP primary compared to a little over 1 million in the Democratic primary, whereas at this point about 1.1 million GOP votes have been cast to just 640,000 Democratic ones. That means there’s a ratio of about 1.8 GOP votes to 1 Democratic vote, compared with a 1.5 to 1 ratio in 2018.

In Texas, the Associated Press has called the Democratic primary in Texas’s 34th District for Rep. Vicente Gonzalez. As a reminder, though, Gonzalez was facing a difficult reelection bid in his current 15th District and decided to seek office in a much safer seat. At least in my book, it looks like this move worked to his benefit.

And with a majority of results now in, the two candidates who were at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6 are still performing poorly. According to the New York Times, Alma Arredondo-Lynch — who’s challenging incumbent Rep. Tony Gonzales in the 23rd District — has 14.7 percent of the vote versus Gonzales’s 78.8 percent, with 65 percent of precincts reporting. (Gonzales was one of five members of the Texas House GOP contingent to vote to certify the 2020 presidential election results.) Over in the 35th District, Sam Montoya languishes in seventh place with 9.2 percent of the vote, with 51 percent of precincts reporting.

A few more Big Lie-endorsing candidate race updates from your resident disinformation reporter. Morgan Luttrell, a former Navy SEAL running for the GOP nomination in the 8th District, has called for a forensic audit of the 2020 election and said that he wouldn’t have endorsed the results, is leading in his race with 53.7 percent of the vote, according to the New York Times. It’s worth noting, though, that his closest competitor — political operative Christian Collins, who currently has 22.4 percent of the vote and may see Luttrell in a run-off — said the exact same things.

A lot of us are turning our attention back to Texas, but since I mentioned the GOP and women earlier, it’s worth noting that the GOP response to Biden’s address tonight will be delivered by Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds. Elected in 2017, she is the first female governor to lead Iowa (19 states have still yet to have a woman governor!). As The 19th wrote, asking her to deliver the rebuttal is arguably an attempt by the GOP to appeal to women voters.

Meanwhile, the Democratic race for lieutenant governor looks like it might be headed to a runoff, too. Mike Collier, an accountant and auditor who challenged incumbent Dan Patrick in 2018, currently leads the pack with roughly 44 percent of the vote, according to the New York Times. Behind him, at 29 percent, is state Rep. Michelle Beckley, who gained national attention last year after she joined lawmakers who fled to Washington, D.C., to block a restrictive Republican elections bill. Carla Brailey, the former vice chair of the Texas Democratic Party, currently sits at 27 percent, per the Times, with just over half of precincts reporting.

In Texas’s 30th District, where Democratic Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson is not seeking reelection, state Rep. Jasmine Crockett is just under the 50 percent she would need to avoid a runoff in the Democratic primary. Crockett, who was endorsed by Johnson, has 46.4 percent of the vote, according to the New York Times, while Jane Hamilton, who was the Biden campaign’s Texas state director in 2020, is in second with 19.6 percent. Less than 60 percent of precincts are reporting. The winner of the primary is almost certainly heading to Congress.

In Texas’s 28th District, it remains to be seen if Rep. Henry Cuellar can win renomination in the Democratic primary. He trails challenger Jessica Cisneros by about 3 points, 46 percent to 49 percent, with more than half the vote in per the New York Times. But neither candidate has a majority because Tannya Benavides has 5 percent, which could force a runoff between the two leading candidates in May.

Biden delivered this State of the Union as an unpopular president. Only Trump had a lower approval rating at this point in his first term. This was obviously a bid to reset his standing with the American people and I think there are two areas where there’s reason to think he could be successful. 1) The most visually obvious turn of the page was on COVID-19. The hall was full and Democrats were maskless. Biden basically acknowledged that while future variants may come, Americans are done with the vast majority of restrictions. That is a pretty popular position. 2) He spent the opening of his speech addressing the crisis in Ukraine, which is a new dynamic and could set him up to be seen in a position of strength as he confronts Putin. That’s yet to be apparent in the polls, though. On just about everything else, Biden is likely stuck. That applies to inflation, large-scale social spending priorities, culture wars — the list goes on. That may sound like a pessimistic reading for Biden. It probably is. But COVID-19 and the threat of war are a big deal, so perhaps there’s some room for perceptions to change.

My one contribution to the State of the Union responses is to note that New Jersey Democratic Rep. Josh Gottheimer trashed Michigan Rep. Rashida Tlaib for delivering the Working Families Party response, saying it was “like keying your own car and slashing your own tires,” and yet is headlining the No Labels response to Biden’s address tonight with Pennsylvania Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick.

I’m assuming the Big Lie voters are backing Paxton, Alex! And he’s quite popular among the conspiracy theory right. Yesterday, a QAnon influencer on Telegram asked his followers who their dream cabinet would be, and many of them named Paxton as their dream U.S. attorney general.

That Republican primary for attorney general remains on a knife’s edge. Incumbent Ken Paxton looks set to advance to a runoff with 42 percent, but doesn’t look likely to win renomination outright with a majority of the vote. Land Commissioner George P. Bush holds a narrow lead for the other runoff slot, as he leads former Texas Supreme Court Justice Eva Guzman 21 percent to 20 percent, but it’s really close. Rep. Louie Gohmert is in fourth place with 17 percent, so he may not be out of it either.

To your point, Kaleigh, I’m semi-surprised that Gohmert isn’t doing better in the Republican attorney general primary? He, like incumbent Paxton, similarly endorsed Trump’s false claims of a rigged election, but is currently in last place among his competitors.

Down in Texas, I’m tracking some of the candidates who have endorsed the Big Lie (that there was widespread fraud in the 2020 election, which is not true). Rep. Pat Fallon, who voted to overturn the results of that election, is leading in the GOP primary for Texas’s 4th District with 59 percent of the vote, according to the New York Times. Meanwhile, another member of Congress who voted to overturn the election — Rep. Lance Gooden — is uncontested in the 5th District.

Julia, it’s certainly helpful for us as observers. But I wonder if it’ll just be too easy for writeups on the State of the Union to mention the multiple Democratic responses as evidence that the party is in a particularly high state of disarray, even if that’s not the case.

Now that the State of the Union is over, the rebuttals can begin. Earlier tonight, I wrote a defense of the many rebuttals that’ll now happen. The president can lay out an ambitious agenda. But it needs Congress to pass. Seeing how others, including fellow Democrats, across the ideological spectrum respond to the president gives us a better sense of what the legislative agenda might actually look like.

You might have noticed that Sen. Joe Manchin sat on the Republican side of the aisle at the State of the Union. His spokeswoman tells ABC News, “Senator Manchin sat with his colleague Senator Romney to remind the American people and the world that bipartisanship works and is alive and well in the U.S. Senate.” Reader, bipartisanship is not alive and well in the U.S. Senate.

Amelia, I agree. It was a hopeful, forward-looking speech, at a time when a lot of Americans feel kind of dissatisfied and worried.

When Texas Republicans established a new congressional map with a new 37th District based mostly in and around Austin, Democratic Rep. Lloyd Doggett decided to run there rather than in the successor district to his current seat in Texas’s 35th District. Only about 11 percent of Doggett’s current constituents are in the new 37th District, so there was some thought that maybe Doggett might not have a cakewalk victory in his primary. But it looks like he may win easily, as the early vote has him winning 83 percent.

Meanwhile, back in Texas’s 15th District, Monica De La Cruz is still leading the Republican primary with about 58 percent of the vote with 59 percent reporting. The GOP continues to elect far fewer women to political office than Democrats, even though in 2020 they elected more women than ever before. Whether that progress will continue is an open question, but De La Cruz winning a competitive primary to compete in a competitive general election are the kinds of things to look for if you want to understand if a party is prioritizing female candidates.

Welp, that’s all the State of the Union polling for tonight! Stay tuned for more Texas primary coverage — I’m off to my burrow.