What Went Down At Biden’s State Of The Union And Texas’s Primary Election

Tonight’s speech felt to me like Biden trying to rekindle some of the optimism and hopefulness that Democrats felt when he took office. He talked about a lot of different topics but I keep thinking about that one line — “It’s going to be okay.” Clearly, a lot of Americans are uncertain about that and Biden knows it.

I might have political science brain, but this speech struck me as an interesting test of some ideas about the impact of a major presidential speech. Big questions: Will the president’s words change perceptions of the Democratic agenda regarding the controversial “defund the police” reform? Will they speak to people who voted for Biden but have been disappointed by his presidency and the direction of the country in his first year in office?

It does feel like Biden is asking for specific actions. He really drilled down, briefly, on some things. For example, he mentioned harm reduction in his section on the opioid epidemic, which struck me as very specific to mention in a State of the Union. The American Rescue Plan provided for grants for harm reduction, which focus on preventing the harms caused by substance use disorders.

I think you are right that it has a laundry list feel to it. The speech also feels a LOT more positive than the overall public mood — like an effort to refocus the Democratic agenda and sound proactive.

Sarah, I think it’s striking how much less ambitious this year’s speech is than last year’s, when Biden was newly inaugurated and still in the middle of his first 100 days. He’s still ticked off the greatest hits like election reform, but the meatiest sections of this speech are pretty bread-and-butter, non-hot-button issues (and stuff with bipartisan support, like support for Ukraine).

For those of you reporting tonight on what’s happening at the State of the Union, I’m struck by just how many different issues Biden is calling on Congress to act on. As Jean wrote earlier today, it’s unlikely that many of these calls lead to legislative action in Congress (see the chart below), but I’m curious what you all make of Biden’s political calculus here. Are his asks pretty broad? Who is Biden trying to reach in his address tonight? I’m particularly curious what you think of his strategy, given how long his approval rating has been mired in the low 40s.

I think we are nearing the end of this speech. It may be worth mentioning that this could well be the last State of the Union speech that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi presides over. In 2007, Pelosi welcomed then-President Bush as the first-ever female Speaker. If Democrats lose the House this fall, it could well be Speaker Kevin McCarthy who welcomes President Biden next year. As far as the long term goes, Pelosi is running for reelection, but she has made some assurances to the left flank of the party that she will likely not continue in her leadership position much longer.

So far, the candidates who were at the Capitol on Jan. 6 (Alma Arredondo-Lynch in the 23rd District and Sam Montoya in the 35th District) are trailing far behind the competition, although there aren't enough results in either race yet to conclusively project a winner.

As Biden discusses improving care for veterans, there are yells and boos from the floor. My ABC colleagues say it was Colorado Rep. Lauren Boebert calling out about the 13 American servicemen who were killed in Kabul last summer as Biden brought up his late son.

In Texas, Rep. Louie Gohmert gave up his safe congressional seat to come in fourth place in the Republican attorney general primary. But in the race to succeed him, Smith County Judge Nathaniel Moran is well on his way to winning the GOP nomination -- and with it almost certainly a ticket to D.C. from one of the most Republican districts in the country. There's still a lot of vote left but Moran is at 73 percent, according to the New York Times.

Biden called for greater protections for abortion rights -- what he didn't mention is that a law that would shore up abortion rights failed in the Senate yesterday, thanks in part to Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin.

Yes, immigration reform is a super challenging issue for both parties to tackle, and there's little consensus between the two parties on how to broach the topic.

Republicans are applauding when Biden says, "We must secure the border and fix our immigration system." Someone chants, "Build the wall!"

Biden touted his Supreme Court nominee, Ketanji Brown Jackson, as a consensus builder. If you're interested in learning more about how she could change the Supreme Court, I wrote a story on that very topic last week!

Only 30 percent of Americans want the Supreme Court to overturn Roe vs. Wade, according to a January poll from CNN/SSRS, while 69 percent would not want the ruling overturned. Democrats are fairly unified in their opposition to overturning Roe (13 percent in favor and 86 percent opposed), as are independents (27 percent in favor and 72 percent opposed). Republicans, however, are split, with 56 percent in favor of overturning Roe and 44 percent opposed.

A few weeks ago, in an episode of our series Confidence Interval, politics reporter Alex Samuels argued that Biden’s Supreme Court pick would motivate Republican voters more than Democrats. You can watch her make the case here:

On Friday, Biden announced Ketanji Brown Jackson as his choice to replace Justice Stephen Breyer on the U.S. Supreme Court. In a poll in early February, Yahoo News/YouGov gave Americans a short bio of Judge Jackson and asked whether she was qualified. Sixty-nine percent said she was very or somewhat qualified to serve on the court, while only 11 percent said she was not very or not at all qualified.

Biden calls for increased gun control legislation. Of course, the Supreme Court is considering a case this term that could make it easier to carry guns in public and, depending on what happens, possibly make it harder for blue states to pass gun control laws.

I've been watching the race in Texas's 8th District too, Alisa. Luttrell has been attacked by his opponent for receiving a campaign contribution from Rep. Adam Kinzinger, one of the most outspoken Republican critics of Trump.

There's been much discussion about Republicans making inroads among Latino voters following Trump's improved performance in 2020. And we are seeing some evidence tonight of increased Latino participation in GOP primaries compared with the last midterm in 2018. In 28 counties in South Texas and near the border with Mexico, many of which are heavily Latino, about 4 in 5 primary voters in 2018 voted in the Democratic race. But so far tonight, with about half of the expected vote in for the governor primaries, about 2 in 3 primary voters have cast ballots in the Democratic race. So while there are more Democratic primary voters, there's a clear uptick in Republican primary voting.

In an Economist/YouGov poll from late January, Americans generally supported several suggestions for election reform. The most popular measures were requiring states to make voting more accessible for people with disabilities, allowing at least two weeks of early voting, accepting broader forms of voter identification and making Election Day a national holiday — at least 60 percent of respondents said they strongly or somewhat supported these policies.

Biden tonight said "the answer isn't to defund the police, it's to fund the police." This will test who sets the party's position on this question — Biden, activists on the left, or their political opponents who want to keep Democrats associated with this slogan.

Speaking of endorsements in Texas, Alex -- the battle of GOP endorsements in the 8th District is leaning heavily in favor of Morgan Luttrell, who has a commanding lead over a crowded primary field on the Republican side. The former Navy SEAL touts the backing of Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, Rep. Dan Crenshaw and former Gov. Rick Perry -- and more recently, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy.

According to tracking polls from YouGov, more Americans have supported an increase in police funding than have opposed it since late June 2020, and the margin between those two groups has been steadily growing ever since. In the most recent survey from early February, 47.9 percent said they supported increasing police funding compared with 20.4 percent who opposed it, while in June 2020, the two were essentially tied, with 36.1 percent supporting an increase and 35.7 percent opposing it.

In a Politico/Morning Consult survey from early February, registered voters were given a list of proposals and asked whether each one would decrease violent crime rates in the U.S. a lot, some or not at all. Topping the list was “increasing funding to build economic opportunities in poor communities,” with 71 percent of voters saying this would decrease violent crime some or a lot. Sixty-nine percent of voters said the same about increasing police funding, 63 percent about hiring more social workers to help police defuse situations with people having emotional problems, and 60 percent about stricter enforcement of current gun-control laws.

Huge round of applause when Biden says, "Our schools are open. Let’s keep it that way." Of course, school closures have been a huge political flashpoint, but education and what kids are learning is likely to remain a focus in the midterms even if COVID-related closures are a thing of the past by that point.

Let’s check in on how Black House and governor candidates are doing in Texas tonight. Five Black candidates have already secured their nominations — all Democrats. Seven more are currently leading their races: five Democrats and two Republicans.

Oh for sure, Jacob. And I'm sure it helps that she came close to beating Gonzalez in 2020, too. Plus, a Trump endorsement never hurts!

Back to Texas — Republicans in D.C. worked hard to get De La Cruz over the finish line tonight in the 15th District. The House GOP leadership-affiliated Congressional Leadership Fund spent $164,000 supporting her in the final weeks of the race. With Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez switching to another district, national Republicans see the 15th District as a top target this cycle and wanted to be sure they got their preferred candidate.

According to Morning Consult’s ongoing tracking, more parents now prefer schools to be open with in-person instruction. As of the most recent data, 44 percent of parents of school-age children said that in-person-only instruction was the best model for K-12 students this school year, compared with 29 percent who said the same in March 2021. Only 12 percent of parents favor online-only instruction, compared with 20 percent in March 2021. The share of parents who said they now preferred hybrid in-person and online instruction has decreased slightly from 39 percent to 32 percent.

Also, Sarah, people just aren’t as worried about it anymore. Americans’ concern about COVID-19 has dissipated in recent months according to an Emerson College poll in mid-February: Only 28 percent of registered voters said that the coronavirus was currently a major threat to public health, compared with a 54 percent majority who said the same in December 2020; a 37 percent plurality said they now considered it a moderate threat.

As many of my colleagues have pointed out on this live blog, there's a sharp pivot tonight in strategy among Democrats on how to handle COVID-19, and that might be in part because Americans' approval of how Biden is handling the pandemic is pretty low, per FiveThirtyEight's COVID-19 presidential approval tracker.

Parents are still somewhat hesitant to vaccinate their children against COVID-19, according to a December/January national poll conducted by PureSpectrum for researchers at Harvard, Northeastern, Northwestern and Rutgers universities. Parents of young children are particularly wary, with only 54 percent of parents with kids under 5 saying they would likely vaccinate their children; 59 percent of parents of 5- to 11-year-olds and 68 percent of parents of 12- to 18-year-olds said the same.

When I heard Biden mention a $15 minimum wage in the State of the Union, it occurred to me the Fight for $15 movement to raise the federal minimum wage to that level began 10 years ago.

On top of that, Sarah, the idea that making more things in America would decrease inflation is at least controversial. Part of the reason some economists think inflation may have been so low over the past 20 years is because of increased globalization and our goods being made cheaply with cheap labor abroad.

All around the world, most people say they agree that “even with all the measures being taken, we will never be able to fully stop the spread of COVID-19 and variants,” according to global polling from Ipsos conducted for the World Economic Forum between mid-January and early February. Across 30 countries, 71 percent on average agree with that statement, including 76 percent of Americans.

It's an interesting tactic, Julia. As FiveThirtyEight's Santul Nerkar pointed out in his recent piece on what Democrats and Republicans get wrong about inflation, there simply isn't a lot of evidence that corporations have had much to do with recent inflation.

Child care is such a huge issue, especially after so many women, especially mothers, left the workforce during the pandemic. Neil Paine and Amelia wrote about this last year: It really illustrated how much of the child care work women were doing in the home. It's not clear that child care availability has bounced back.

Americans are concerned about the cost of long-term care as they get older. In a March 2021 survey conducted for the SCAN Foundation, The Associated Press and NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that only 16 percent of adults were extremely or very confident that they would have the resources to pay for needed care as they age. Another 44 percent were somewhat confident, and 38 percent were not too confident or not confident at all.

Registered voters agree with Biden that corporations bear some responsibility for rising inflation, according to a February Politico/Morning Consult poll. Fifty-four percent of voters said that “large companies having little competition” was very or somewhat responsible for increasing inflation now. However, in the same survey, 59 percent said that “the Biden administration’s policies” were very or somewhat responsible.

Biden has now gotten to the importance of corporations paying their fair share. This note sort of makes sense for him to strike. It links back to the passage of the American Rescue Plan in 2021, which feels like a high point for the administration now. It addresses some criticisms from the left wing of the party. And it balances an energizing tone with a troubled public mood — calling for change without being too dour about the current circumstances.

Alex, I believe that TX-15 is one of only two newly drawn congressional districts so far whose FiveThirtyEight partisan lean is exactly "EVEN."

And in Texas’s 15th Congressional District, Republican Monica De La Cruz seems all but assured to win the GOP primary tonight. According to the New York Times, she’s earned roughly 58 percent of the vote. Her closest challenger, Mauro Garza, is at 17 percent. As Geoff and I reported last year, it’ll be interesting to see whether Cruz can not only win tonight — but succeed in a November general election. During Texas’s redistricting process, the 15th District, currently represented by Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, became more Republican-leaning and is now considered a toss-up. As a result, Gonzalez is running in the neighboring 34th District, where he has a clear edge over all of his opponents.

According to a poll from Politico and the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health conducted in early January, 59 percent of Americans said that establishing free universal pre-kindergarten for the nation’s 3- and 4-year-olds would help the country, including 86 percent of Democrats, 35 percent of Republicans and 58 percent of independents. However, only 26 percent of Americans said universal pre-K would help their own families.

Interesting that climate change is coming up in the context of saving families money on their energy costs -- just a day after a very dire report came out warning that we may be rapidly approaching the point of no return on global warming. Definitely not the kind of note Biden is striking tonight, at least so far.

Nathaniel, it looks like Gohmert is leading in most of the counties in his neck of the woods in East Texas (at least those that have reported). But that's not been enough to keep pace with Guzman or Bush in the statewide results.

Alex, I'm kind of surprised at how poorly Gohmert is doing in the Texas attorney general race. I remember telling you early in the race that I thought he would be the one to go to a runoff with Paxton because he's arguably the furthest-right candidate in the race. But I guess Paxton's Trump endorsement took the wind out of his sails.

Meanwhile, in Texas, the Republican primary race for attorney general is far from over. Paxton, who has been dogged by various ethical and legal baggage, remains in first place so far, according to The New York Times, with 42 percent of the vote. But it’s not clear whether he can avoid a runoff tonight — even given Trump's endorsement. Former Texas Supreme Court Justice Eva Guzman and Land Commissioner George P. Bush are essentially tied for second at 21.3 percent and 20.8 percent, respectively. Meanwhile, Rep. Louie Gohmert trails all of his GOP challengers with a paltry 16 percent of the vote.

Biden's "made in America" push tonight has been a popular message among politicians for a long time, but Trump can probably take some credit for the urgency with which Biden is hammering it. It's a shift from where the Democratic Party was under Obama. You may remember during a presidential debate back in 2012 when then-President Obama said "there are some jobs that are not going to come back. Because they are low-wage, low-skill jobs." Biden's message tonight has basically been: We are going to build everything in America.