FiveThirtyEight
Geoffrey Skelley

And as sometimes happens, there are complications with getting a read on what a 59 percent share of the primary vote really means for Rep. Pat Fallon. This is actually Fallon’s first time running in a congressional primary, as he first won in the 2020 general election after becoming the GOP nominee at a party committee conference in August 2020, not in the primary that March. That’s because the already-renominated Rep. John Ratcliffe had resigned to become Director of National Intelligence, so the party needed to replace Ratcliffe on the ballot. So between having never had to go before the GOP primary electorate and having only previously represented slightly more than half of the constituents in the new 4th District, Fallon winning almost 60 percent in his primary isn’t too shabby!


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