FiveThirtyEight
Geoffrey Skelley

You have to be careful not to overstate what primary turnout means — after all, as a general rule, people don’t tend to vote in primaries for offices other than president. Statewide races do a lot to drive turnout, and with more activity in the gubernatorial and attorney general races, the GOP probably had more high-profile primary contests on the ballot in Texas today. But so far tonight, the relative turnout in the Republican primary has far outdistanced the Democratic primary, including in comparison to the 2018 primaries. Four years ago, about 1.5 million voters participated in the GOP primary compared to a little over 1 million in the Democratic primary, whereas at this point about 1.1 million GOP votes have been cast to just 640,000 Democratic ones. That means there’s a ratio of about 1.8 GOP votes to 1 Democratic vote, compared with a 1.5 to 1 ratio in 2018.


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