What Went Down At Biden’s State Of The Union And Texas’s Primary Election

Progressives have had a pretty good night in Texas. Casar, who is endorsed by the Sunrise Movement, Indivisible, Sen. Bernie Sanders, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Our Revolution and Justice Dems, won his open primary in Texas’s 35th District. In Texas’s 30th District, Crockett, who is endorsed by Our Revolution, is leading in that open primary. And as noted throughout the night, Cisneros is leading in Texas’s 28th District in a close race against incumbent Cuellar that might go to a runoff. And in Texas’s 16th, incumbent Rep. Veronica Escobar, who is endorsed by the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, beat back her lone challenger.

As we wrote in 2020, thanks to an increasingly powerful progressive campaign apparatus, the left wing of the Democratic Party is now an established player in the party’s primaries, and in 2022 that apparatus is back at it. This year, as in the last two election cycles, FiveThirtyEight will once again be tracking the success of candidates endorsed by progressive groups and progressive leaders to monitor the movement’s influence within the party, so we’ll see you at the next primary.

It’s been another long night covering a Texas election, but I’ve gotta say … I agree with Nathaniel’s earlier assessment that there weren’t too many surprises tonight. Most incumbents (both Republicans and Democrats) beat a slate of challengers and several marquee races (like the Texas gubernatorial primary races) were quick calls. What I will say, though, is that some pundits might look at tonight as a win for progressives in the state. We discussed this a bit on the podcast, but you have folks like Cisneros in the 28th District, Casar in the 35th District and O’Rourke for governor who either 1) handily won their races or 2) are close to beating someone far more moderate. As Texas gets slightly bluer with each presidential cycle, I’m curious if this is a trend we can expect going forward — or if this is a fluke year?

Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller, a Republican, is winning his primary with just 59 percent of the vote, according to the New York Times. That’s low for an incumbent but familiar territory for Miller, who won the 2018 primary as an incumbent with only 56 percent of the vote. Miller has courted a lot of controversy in his two terms in office, from spreading fake news on social media to calling then-presidential candidate Hillary Clinton a slur I won’t repeat here, to being investigated for criminal misuse of taxpayer funds (no charges were filed). His main opponent, state Rep. James White, is winning just 31.1 percent of the vote, which isn’t enough to force a runoff. Miller had a close general election in 2018. His Democratic opponent this fall will be cannabis attorney Susan Hays, who convincingly won her primary tonight.