What Went Down At Biden’s State Of The Union And Texas’s Primary Election

It’s been another long night covering a Texas election, but I’ve gotta say … I agree with Nathaniel’s earlier assessment that there weren’t too many surprises tonight. Most incumbents (both Republicans and Democrats) beat a slate of challengers and several marquee races (like the Texas gubernatorial primary races) were quick calls. What I will say, though, is that some pundits might look at tonight as a win for progressives in the state. We discussed this a bit on the podcast, but you have folks like Cisneros in the 28th District, Casar in the 35th District and O’Rourke for governor who either 1) handily won their races or 2) are close to beating someone far more moderate. As Texas gets slightly bluer with each presidential cycle, I’m curious if this is a trend we can expect going forward — or if this is a fluke year?

Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller, a Republican, is winning his primary with just 59 percent of the vote, according to the New York Times. That’s low for an incumbent but familiar territory for Miller, who won the 2018 primary as an incumbent with only 56 percent of the vote. Miller has courted a lot of controversy in his two terms in office, from spreading fake news on social media to calling then-presidential candidate Hillary Clinton a slur I won’t repeat here, to being investigated for criminal misuse of taxpayer funds (no charges were filed). His main opponent, state Rep. James White, is winning just 31.1 percent of the vote, which isn’t enough to force a runoff. Miller had a close general election in 2018. His Democratic opponent this fall will be cannabis attorney Susan Hays, who convincingly won her primary tonight.

A runoff in the Democratic primary for Texas’s 28th District remains a distinct possibility. With 80 percent of the vote in, per the New York Times, Rep. Henry Cuellar now trails challenger Jessica Cisneros by 2.6 points, 46.4 percent to 49.0 percent. But third wheel Tannya Benavides has 4.6 percent, so it’s possible neither Cisneros nor Cuellar will clear the majority hurdle in the end. Much of the outstanding vote appears to be from areas where Cuellar has run well, so he may be more likely to gain ground at this point to force a runoff in May.