FiveThirtyEight
Geoffrey Skelley

For all the action in the GOP primary for attorney general — incumbent Ken Paxton will likely advance to a runoff, but it’s unclear against whom — the Democratic race may also be headed toward a runoff. There, former ACLU attorney Rochelle Garza leads with 42 percent, while former Galveston Mayor Joe Jaworski has a slight edge over attorney Lee Merritt for the second spot, 21 percent to 18 percent. Garza originally was running in the 34th District, but she dropped out when Rep. Vicente Gonzalez decided to run there instead of in the successor seat to his current district, the 15th. Now she could find herself running statewide against Paxton (if they both advance from likely runoffs), which could be Democrats’ best (maybe only) shot at competing for a statewide office in November.

Jacob Rubashkin

In Texas’s 15th District, we’re probably headed to a runoff in the Democratic primary between attorney andveteran Ruben Ramirez, who has 28.6 percent of the vote according to the New York Times, and one of three other candidates: attorney John Rigney, small business owner Michelle Vallejo and educator Eliza Alvarado, who are bunched up at 20.4 percent, 19.5 percent and 16.6 percent of the vote, respectively. Ramirez is the preferred choice of a lot of Democrats in D.C., who think he’s the best option to hold onto this highly competitive seat. More interesting, however, is that roughly the same number of votes seem to have been cast in the GOP primary (21,915) as in the Democratic contest (22,834), which is ominous for Democrats trying to hold onto a historically blue seat.

Nathaniel Rakich

As we wait for more results to come in, I’m honestly struck by how few surprises there have been so far tonight. Abbott and O’Rourke won big, as expected. Paxton looks like he’s going to a runoff. Cisneros-Cuellar is close. And other incumbents and favorites are winning handily.


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