FiveThirtyEight
Nathaniel Rakich

As we wait for more results to come in, I’m honestly struck by how few surprises there have been so far tonight. Abbott and O’Rourke won big, as expected. Paxton looks like he’s going to a runoff. Cisneros-Cuellar is close. And other incumbents and favorites are winning handily.

With Gonzales being declared the winner of his primary, according to the Associated Press, a majority of Republican incumbents who voted to certify the 2020 election results — Gonzales and Reps. Chip Roy and Michael McCaul, who ran uncontested — have now won their primaries. The other two, Reps. Dan Crenshaw and Van Taylor, are running at 76 and 51 percent of the vote respectively, with about 70 percent of results in.

Kaleigh Rogers

Rep. Tony Gonzalez is likely getting the nomination in the Texas’s 23rd Congressional District (he currently has 78.7 percent of the vote, according to the New York Times, and the Associated Press has called the race for him). But Big Lie proponent and actual insurrection participant Alma Arredondo-Lynch had a not-insignificant showing: She currently has 14.8 percent of the vote, according to the Times.


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