What Went Down At Biden’s State Of The Union And Texas’s Primary Election

Nathaniel, that’s a great question (classic way to gain time during a live interview to figure out your answer). Cuellar won about 58 percent in a district that Biden won 52 percent in back in 2020, so there’s evidence he’s got decently strong local appeal. But the scandal may have eliminated that potential advantage, along with some shifts in the makeup of the district (62 percent of Cuellar’s old seat is in the new 28th District). So I’m tempted to say it won’t matter much in the end.

That’s a great question, Nathaniel … but it’s honestly hard to tell? Cuellar so far has campaigned as a moderate with more experience, but Cisneros has the backing of congressional progressives, like New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Sen. Bernie Sanders. If Cisneros sticks to focusing her campaign on local issues impacting the district versus national ones that typically animate the progressive base (but not necessarily Hispanic voters), she could stand a chance of winning in November?

With a D+7 partisan lean, Texas’s 28th District could be competitive this November, especially if a red wave develops. I know some Democrats are worried that the progressive Cisneros would be less electable than the more moderate Cuellar, but now that Cuellar is under federal investigation, I’m not so sure (our research has shown that scandals typically cost candidates several percentage points). Who do you all think would be the stronger candidate for Democrats at this point?