It’s almost 10 p.m. Eastern, which means polls in Utah are about to close (although Utah is another state that mostly votes by mail). Our forecast — as of this morning, when we froze it — gave Sanders a 3 in 5 (59 percent) chance to win here and Biden a 3 in 10 (28 percent) chance. On average, we’re predicting 29 percent of Utahns to vote for Sanders, 25 percent to vote for Biden, 21 percent to vote for Bloomberg and 17 percent to vote for Warren. For delegate purposes, it’s also important what each candidate gets in each congressional district, but it shouldn’t be too far off their statewide totals.
Can Biden catch Sanders in any Utah districts?
Average forecasted vote share for the top four Democratic presidential candidates in Utah congressional districts, according to the FiveThirtyEight model as of 9:30 a.m. on March 3
| District | Sanders | Biden | Bloomberg | Warren |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UT-01 | 29% | 26% | 21% | 17% |
| UT-02 | 30 | 25 | 21 | 16 |
| UT-03 | 28 | 26 | 21 | 18 |
| UT-04 | 29 | 24 | 22 | 17 |
| State | 29 | 25 | 21 | 17 |