What The Delegate Race Looks Like At The District Level In Tennessee
It’ll be awhile before we know what’s happening in Tennessee, but our forecast pegs Biden as the favorite in Tennessee with about a 2 in 3 (68 percent) chance of winning statewide, though Sanders also has a real shot at finishing first, with a 1 in 4 (25 percent) chance. Biden has a forecasted statewide vote of 34 percent, on average, ahead of Sanders’s 27 percent. But the results by congressional district will also matter for delegate allocation purposes, and unlike in some of the other Southern states, Biden’s and Sanders’s vote shares are neck-and-neck in some districts, with Sanders even leading in a few. Here is our forecasted vote share for each candidate in each district:
Biden and Sanders lead in Tennessee’s districts
Average forecasted vote share for the top four Democratic presidential candidates in Tennessee congressional districts, according to the FiveThirtyEight model as of 9:30 a.m. on March 3
| District | Biden | Sanders | Bloomberg | Warren |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TN-01 | 28% | 30% | 21% | 16% |
| TN-02 | 29 | 30 | 20 | 16 |
| TN-03 | 31 | 29 | 20 | 15 |
| TN-04 | 31 | 30 | 19 | 15 |
| TN-05 | 34 | 27 | 20 | 14 |
| TN-06 | 30 | 30 | 20 | 16 |
| TN-07 | 31 | 30 | 19 | 16 |
| TN-08 | 35 | 27 | 19 | 14 |
| TN-09 | 46 | 21 | 19 | 9 |
| State | 34 | 27 | 20 | 14 |