What The Delegate Race Looks Like At The District Level In Texas
Polls are closing soon in Texas, and it might be awhile before we get a call there, because Texas is best described as a toss-up race: Biden has almost a 3 in 5 (55 percent) chance of winning and Sanders has about a 2 in 5 (43 percent) shot. And we expect both of them to get around 30 percent of the statewide vote, on average. But the results by state Senate district will also matter for delegate allocation purposes, and as you can see, both Biden and Sanders are likely to clear the 15 percent vote threshold and pick up delegates in every district. Here is our forecasted vote share for each candidate in each district:
Biden and Sanders are battling for first in Texas
Average forecasted vote share for the top four Democratic presidential candidates in Texas state Senate districts, according to the FiveThirtyEight model as of 9:30 a.m. on March 3
| District | Biden | Sanders | Bloomberg | Warren |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD-01 | 33% | 27% | 19% | 13% |
| SD-02 | 31 | 28 | 19 | 14 |
| SD-03 | 32 | 28 | 19 | 13 |
| SD-04 | 31 | 28 | 19 | 14 |
| SD-05 | 29 | 30 | 18 | 16 |
| SD-06 | 30 | 28 | 21 | 12 |
| SD-07 | 30 | 28 | 18 | 16 |
| SD-08 | 28 | 29 | 17 | 18 |
| SD-09 | 29 | 29 | 20 | 15 |
| SD-10 | 32 | 27 | 19 | 14 |
| SD-11 | 29 | 29 | 19 | 15 |
| SD-12 | 27 | 30 | 18 | 16 |
| SD-13 | 37 | 24 | 19 | 11 |
| SD-14 | 26 | 31 | 17 | 17 |
| SD-15 | 32 | 27 | 19 | 13 |
| SD-16 | 28 | 29 | 18 | 17 |
| SD-17 | 29 | 29 | 17 | 17 |
| SD-18 | 31 | 29 | 17 | 15 |
| SD-19 | 30 | 30 | 19 | 14 |
| SD-20 | 29 | 30 | 19 | 15 |
| SD-21 | 29 | 30 | 19 | 14 |
| SD-22 | 31 | 28 | 19 | 14 |
| SD-23 | 37 | 25 | 20 | 11 |
| SD-24 | 30 | 29 | 18 | 14 |
| SD-25 | 26 | 31 | 18 | 17 |
| SD-26 | 28 | 30 | 20 | 14 |
| SD-27 | 29 | 30 | 19 | 14 |
| SD-28 | 29 | 30 | 19 | 14 |
| SD-29 | 28 | 30 | 19 | 15 |
| SD-30 | 28 | 30 | 19 | 15 |
| SD-31 | 28 | 30 | 19 | 14 |
| State | 30 | 29 | 19 | 15 |