Well I think there's pretty clear evidence that as Bloomberg has slipped over the past week or two, those votes generally go to Biden. Is that the same as if he hadn't run in the first place? Probably. But we're getting into deep counterfactuals now. In rather accidental, screwed-up ways, everything may have worked out perfectly for Biden, even though it's certainly not how he'd have scripted it.
By Nate Silver
