What Went Down On Super Tuesday
Well, Amelia, my hot take is that California wouldn’t necessarily be counterevidence of that — when many of California’s ballots were cast (i.e., early), the momentum/media narrative favored Sanders!
It’s almost 10 p.m. Eastern, which means polls in Utah are about to close (although Utah is another state that mostly votes by mail). Our forecast — as of this morning, when we froze it — gave Sanders a 3 in 5 (59 percent) chance to win here and Biden a 3 in 10 (28 percent) chance. On average, we’re predicting 29 percent of Utahns to vote for Sanders, 25 percent to vote for Biden, 21 percent to vote for Bloomberg and 17 percent to vote for Warren. For delegate purposes, it’s also important what each candidate gets in each congressional district, but it shouldn’t be too far off their statewide totals.
Can Biden catch Sanders in any Utah districts?
Average forecasted vote share for the top four Democratic presidential candidates in Utah congressional districts, according to the FiveThirtyEight model as of 9:30 a.m. on March 3
| District | Sanders | Biden | Bloomberg | Warren |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UT-01 | 29% | 26% | 21% | 17% |
| UT-02 | 30 | 25 | 21 | 16 |
| UT-03 | 28 | 26 | 21 | 18 |
| UT-04 | 29 | 24 | 22 | 17 |
| State | 29 | 25 | 21 | 17 |
Nathaniel, I want to see how California looks for Sanders before we declare that campaigns don’t work. But in Bloomberg’s case, I think tonight is definitely evidence that all the money in the world can’t make you a more appealing candidate.