What Went Down On Super Tuesday
A breakdown of voting methods from North Carolina shows just how much the vote swung toward Biden. In the absentee vote, he’s about 4 points ahead of Sanders; in the Election Day vote, he’s up by 30 points.
Election Day voters in North Carolina really like Biden
Vote share by candidate for absentee voters and Election Day voters in North Carolina, with 57 percent of precincts reporting
| Candidate | Absentee | Election Day | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | 28.3% | 53.0% | +24.6 |
| Gabbard | 0.4 | 0.6 | +0.2 |
| Sanders | 24.3 | 23.3 | -1.0 |
| Warren | 12.1 | 8.4 | -3.7 |
| Bloomberg | 17.7 | 10.1 | -7.6 |
Biden winning Minnesota would be pretty bad for Sanders, Sarah. Since Biden had only a 1 in 5 (19 percent) chance of winning the state, it would probably qualify as his most surprising win of the night (that or Massachusetts, if he wins there). It would also imply that the endorsements of Biden in recent days have really been working on voters. Until yesterday, Minnesota was expected to vote for Klobuchar, but then she dropped out and endorsed Biden. It would be a pretty remarkable demonstration of Klobuchar’s political muscle if a majority of voters in her state listened to her and switched to Biden.
Biden and Sanders are tied at 34 percent in Maine with 21 percent reporting. It seems like a good Sanders state, and our model had him favored there, but its population is also quite old, which is working against him.